The Hollywood Numbers Game

[Winter in New York]

Anybody want to hazard some guesstimates: (maybe Creative Exec could have a crack a this? Or Will?)

1: How many sales / script assignments overall would there be in Hollywood in an 'average' month?
2: How many of those are new spec sales?
3: How many spec scripts would have gone out to be sold in an average month? (only not to find a buyer)

Winter in New York

[Done Deal]

I don't think anyone can truly answer this since there are so many companies out there that do little options or buy projects for small films that are never ever reported. But let me see if I can get close...

1) We list on average 95 to 100 deals a month. This includes scripts, spec scripts, treatments, ideas, pitches, books, etc. These are not all the sales/deals by any means. There are probably at least 2 or 3 times that taking place in some form or another.

2) Of that number (we're listing) 5 to 7 are spec scripts a month on average. So probably around 10% or so of all the deals each month involve spec scripts.

3) Again, since most people are not advertising to the whole town they are going out with a script, it'd be a bit tough to say or keep track of, but I'd think there would easily be hundreds & hundreds of spec scripts flooding the market each month from agents, managers, ent. lawyers, etc. trying to sell them to different companies/producers. (Keep in mind that one script might be sent out to say 20 or 30 different companies.) Also, I'm not including in this estimate the number sent by the writers directly to companies. If I did then surely thousands are being sent around looking for a buyer each month.

CE can most likely provide some better numbers; particularly from an agency's point of view. But again hopefully this will be close enough to help out some.

[Winter in New York]

Thanks Will. They're about the figures I thought they'd be.

One follow-up question (again for anyone, but maybe you or Creative Exec):

4: how many out of the 100 deals reported are 'assignments'? (be they comic book, article, novel, whatever)

Winter in New York

[Done Deal]

I randomly selected a few months worth of deals as I did with the first figures I posted. Out of those deals about 10 each month were assignments for a writer(s) to specially adapt a book, novel, comic-book, article, play, etc. (Not the actual deal for the rights to the material.)

The calculations are a bit crudely done but hopefully this gives you a decent idea.

[Winter in New York]

10 spec sales a month
10 assignments a month

Even forgetting about the many thousands of screenwriters trying to 'break in' for a moment. I wonder how many screenwriter there are with agents in LA?

5000?? (guess)

By that question I mean: how many screenwriters are out there who are 'in the game' and hoping to get one of those 10 assignments on offer?

When you boil the numbers down like this...it's scary, scary, stuff.

Fortunately, a fair amount of those 10 assignments a month are low-end assignments. (Say: $100k - $150k). Which means they're not even on the radar of the big boys.

And thank God for that, I say! Otherwise the rest of us wouldn't ever get a look in!!! :p

Winter in New York

[Unca Leo]

There are also many, many assignments that never make the trades.

[Winter in New York]

Sidebar: Unca Leo, how's Godspeed coming along? Keep seeing Harrison Ford in the Sean Connery role in 'Outland' whenever I think of it... 8)

Winter in New York

[vex]

According to IMDB, Ford is slated to play it. :D

[Done Deal]

As Unca Leo (and I have noted) there are assignments and sales that never make the trades of course, but still the numbers are scary. The only thing worse than trying to be a screenwriter out here is trying to be an actor.

"How many screenwriters are out there who are 'in the game' and hoping to get one of those 10 assignments on offer?"

How many members does the WGA have and work from that number for starters. Again, not an exact figure by any means but it will begin to give you some idea of the level of competition.

[Unca Leo]

Godspeed is doing great. But, as with anything in this biz, I'll count those chickens when they roll the cameras.

[Minibrain]

There are more than 10 assignments a month.

[Done Deal]

Yes, of course there are more than 10 a month. I noted ten in reference to what we list along with the fact that we can't (nor can anyone else) lists all the deals that take place. It's a number relative to what we list. I'd be more than willing to bet the percentage is pretty accurate considering the number of deals we list each month.