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Old 07-28-2010, 01:14 AM   #21
jcgary
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

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P&A costs run about 300 million on a 200 million budget.
No.
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Old 07-28-2010, 08:30 AM   #22
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

Disney spent $4 billion on Marvel. Super-hero tent-poles are here to stay I'm afraid. And everyone else will continue to ride this wave until it fails, which, personally, I think it will. But, hey, I'm just a, um, writer....
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Old 07-28-2010, 10:44 AM   #23
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

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No.
plus one.
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Old 07-28-2010, 10:58 AM   #24
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

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Where do I get the "eighty" from? I'm just extrapolating from articles I've read... For example...

http://www.slashfilm.com/2010/03/18/...eleased-in-3d/

... Alan Horn says they have 9 coming out in 2011. Up from 4 or 5 this year. So with eight studios in play all doing the same thing, it works out to be "roughly" eighty tentpoles in 2011. This year it's probably 30 or so, which makes sense, as the push to this model was early '09... Takes about 2 years so 2011 will be the watershed year...

Next year we'll really see it... the over-supply or "over-crowding" of tentpoles -- There just aren't enough weekends... These movies won't be able to roll for 4 or 6 weeks like they did before, and hence, many more big failures...

If I was a studio guy I would counter this glut by picking up modest-budget scripts this fall/winter... When the theatres are packed (and I mean p-a-c-k-e-d) with mindless tentpoles next year, and a certain segment of the viewing public is craving for anything else, a really original piece (or ten) could really take off...
I think you're quite a ways off. Which studios are making tentpole movies and how many are they making? If they all go the max of what they are talking about doing in the next year or two, you get something like this:

Warners 6-8
Paramount 4-6
Universal 4-6
Sony 4-6
Fox 6-8
Disney 4-6

And I think even this is high. I think Disney may do 3-4 and Sony and Universal may do fewer as well. So, I think it really may be something more along the lines of 20. You have about fourteen weekends in the traditional Summer season, it's not really that big a push for domestic. And, of course, domestic is becoming less important all the time so where those tentpole movies perform best, overseas, you have a longer release, I believe. But, I'm not expert.
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Old 07-28-2010, 11:08 AM   #25
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

I think the model is changing, but in a somewhat different way.

As technology enhances what can be done in a theater, the tentpole gives the viewer (often, but obviously not always, looking for something - ANYTHING - to do with their kids as other forms of entertainment for kids is getting way too expensive -- take a kid to a ballgame recently???) more than a movie... it now has the capability to provide a CINEMATIC EXPERIENCE which is arguably now the defining movie experience for people under 30.

... maybe a bad example but sort of like when planetariums started doing laser shows... technology permitting expansion of offerings beyond the venue's original concept.

PLUS, technology has also changed the way we view movies at home, as we're no longer gathered around the 19 inch Motorola plugged into our VCRs with the glitchy tapes... now we have capability for 52 inch HD BlueRay and you name it right at home, and the 30 + (give or take) generations who went to see the smaller, indie type movies growing up or while dating seem quite content more often than not to view them at home, as they now often have access to the CINEMATIC EXPERIENCE and SURROUND SOUND in their living rooms, finished basements, etc... They (we) do go theaters, just a bit more selectively.

Which leaves kind of a gray area of Comedies (although I guess less viable in the international market to an extent) and Action/Thirllers that thrive on the group audience and/or visual experience (obviously the Hangover, The Proposal, Taken as commercial successes in the theaters).

So maybe the model is this:

1. Amazing Visual Experience with passable story and passable acting can now be a viable tentpole and make money for studios for a long long time. Great stories and/or great acting = a true home run with the visuals.

2. Great comedies and intense action/thrillers can sustain a good solid run in theaters too

3. For other genres all's not lost as it's possible to provide a great and cost effective (by studio standards) theater experience, but it's a tougher climb especially in a climate where business models tend to embrace risk aversion.

4. and for those 'other genres', plus comedies and action/thrillers, well done films with strong stories and strong performances are incredibly viable for the home viewing market - a market that is also driven by the excellent quality of TV shows that make the big screen HD TV an even better investment.

So maybe I'm off base in this analysis, or maybe it's so obvious that it breaks no new ground if I'm correct, but this is just how it seems to me having now plowed these fields for a few years along with everyone else.

ps.. I'm all for Calculator being somewhat right (want to keep the studios alive and healthy, but want them to take on the smaller films too) as non-tenpoles are the movies I love to see and love to write. I have yet to write a tentpole
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Old 07-28-2010, 11:56 AM   #26
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

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Originally Posted by tucsonray View Post
I think the model is changing, but in a somewhat different way.

As technology enhances what can be done in a theater, the tentpole gives the viewer (often, but obviously not always, looking for something - ANYTHING - to do with their kids as other forms of entertainment for kids is getting way too expensive -- take a kid to a ballgame recently???) more than a movie... it now has the capability to provide a CINEMATIC EXPERIENCE which is arguably now the defining movie experience for people under 30.

... maybe a bad example but sort of like when planetariums started doing laser shows... technology permitting expansion of offerings beyond the venue's original concept.

PLUS, technology has also changed the way we view movies at home, as we're no longer gathered around the 19 inch Motorola plugged into our VCRs with the glitchy tapes... now we have capability for 52 inch HD BlueRay and you name it right at home, and the 30 + (give or take) generations who went to see the smaller, indie type movies growing up or while dating seem quite content more often than not to view them at home, as they now often have access to the CINEMATIC EXPERIENCE and SURROUND SOUND in their living rooms, finished basements, etc... They (we) do go theaters, just a bit more selectively.

Which leaves kind of a gray area of Comedies (although I guess less viable in the international market to an extent) and Action/Thirllers that thrive on the group audience and/or visual experience (obviously the Hangover, The Proposal, Taken as commercial successes in the theaters).

So maybe the model is this:

1. Amazing Visual Experience with passable story and passable acting can now be a viable tentpole and make money for studios for a long long time. Great stories and/or great acting = a true home run with the visuals.

2. Great comedies and intense action/thrillers can sustain a good solid run in theaters too

3. For other genres all's not lost as it's possible to provide a great and cost effective (by studio standards) theater experience, but it's a tougher climb especially in a climate where business models tend to embrace risk aversion.

4. and for those 'other genres', plus comedies and action/thrillers, well done films with strong stories and strong performances are incredibly viable for the home viewing market - a market that is also driven by the excellent quality of TV shows that make the big screen HD TV an even better investment.

So maybe I'm off base in this analysis, or maybe it's so obvious that it breaks no new ground if I'm correct, but this is just how it seems to me having now plowed these fields for a few years along with everyone else.

ps.. I'm all for Calculator being somewhat right (want to keep the studios alive and healthy, but want them to take on the smaller films too) as non-tenpoles are the movies I love to see and love to write. I have yet to write a tentpole
I agree. Technology is the one thing that's not cyclical. We don't even have to buy the DVD anymore. We can stream it or DVR it if it's on cable. The release windows are getting smaller and smaller.

So if we're going to make the effort to get out and watch the movie, it better be an audience experience. That doesn't necessarily mean tentpole. Paranormal Activity was no-budget, but was still an audience event film.

That said, tentpoles will dominate theatrical. And the gap between smaller films and bigger films will widen. Unfortunately.
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Old 07-28-2010, 12:05 PM   #27
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

Yes, totally agree... 'audience event' is a much better way to describe it.
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Old 07-28-2010, 12:29 PM   #28
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

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Technology is the one thing that's not cyclical.
not the first time in film history there have been 3d films though...
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Old 07-28-2010, 12:43 PM   #29
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

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not the first time in film history there have been 3d films though...
True. And it's looking like 3D is as gimmicky now as it was back then.
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Old 07-28-2010, 12:50 PM   #30
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

I’ve been attending the WGA Genre series and listening to advice from the most successful writers in Hollywood right now. While they have touched (whined) upon the current state of the business, they have all a greed that the $1-$10 million market is thriving and it can only get better.
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