What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

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  • What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

    On the April 23 Scriptnotes podcast, a listener asked what income a successful screenwriter could "expect- to make.

    http://johnaugust.com/podcast

    John and Craig said that it could be millions of dollars per year - but only for about 40 or so of the top screenwriters. They also said that lower-tier screenwriters could make hundreds of thousands of dollars per year.

    I suspect that many listeners tuned out what they said about the odds and focused on those dollar signs. So in the interest of providing a reality check I suggest the following analysis:

    1. The universe of people "interested- in screenwriting is at least the size of the Scriptnotes listenership: about 100,000.

    2. The universe of people who are serious about being screenwriters is probably much smaller. The most prestigious (and I believe the largest) amateur screenwriting competition is the Nicholl Fellowship competition. In 2012, the Nicholl received a record 7,197 scripts.

    http://www.oscars.org/awards/nicholl/

    People can enter up to 3 scripts each, and the number of entrants in 2012 was about 5,500.

    http://messageboard.donedealpro.com/...299#post865299 (post 105)

    Thus, the universe of people who are serious about becoming professional screenwriters is at least 5,500 - but could be many times that number.

    3. The number of people who broke in by selling a spec in 2012 was 19 (including several writing teams). (There were 132 total spec scales in 2012, but most were by pros.)

    http://blog.blcklst.com/category/spec-script-sales/

    19 out of 5,500 translates to odds of 3/1000 or 1/333.

    4. Selling a spec script to a WGA signatory is one way to join the WGA:

    "Approximately 1500 players drafted into Major League baseball every year; approximately 300 new members admitted to the WGAW every year.-

    http://www.wga.org/Common/Templates/...px?pageid=4634

    So only 6% get in by selling a feature spec. Most get in via TV, new media, writing assignments, etc.

    5. Becoming a member of the WGA is a requirement for working for WGA signatories (including all the major studios).

    However, becoming a member of the WGA, as hard as it is, does not guarantee that a writer can earn a living from screenwriting -- let alone get rich.

    6. The WGA has at least 12,000 members. (Surprisingly, the reported numbers vary considerably from source to source...)

    http://www.wgawregistry.org/webrss/

    In 2011 only 4,338 of those members (36%) reported receiving ANY income from screenwriting.

    http://www.wga.org/subpage_whoweare.aspx?id=230

    7. "Most writers are middle class; 46% did not even work last year. Of those who do work, one quarter make less than $37,700 a year and 50% make less than $105,000 a year. Over a five year period of employment and unemployment, a writer's average income is $62,000 per year.-

    Writers Guild of America, West (2007)

    (there are multiple references to this stat, which doesn't seem to be live on the WGA site any more)

    8. Put these stats together and the average aspiring professional screenwriting has a .3% chance of earning $62,000/year, which means that the expected return from an investment in screenwriting is $186 - less than the cost of FinalDraft 8 ($249).

    (Of course, far more than 99 out of 100 will actually earn nothing.)

    9. To me, this suggests that screenwriting should be regarded as a relatively inexpensive hobby that very rarely yields financial rewards.

    IMO, it makes sense to write screenplays if you love to write screenplays, but it makes no sense to write screenplays with the expectation of getting rich in the process, or to make serious personal/financial sacrifices in the course of that pursuit.

    (For example, borrowing $36,000+ per year to get an MFA in screenwriting is tantamount to financial suicide, since it doesn't improve the odds in any significant way.)

    Comments?
    "People who work in Hollywood are the ones who didn't quit." -- Lawrence Kasdan

    Please visit my website and blog: www.lauridonahue.com.

  • #2
    Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

    Originally posted by LauriD View Post
    Comments?
    I think what all of this really boils down to is the following:
    1. Screenwriting is a very tough business to break into.
    2. There's a vast difference between the reported earnings of top-tier screenwriters and your average screenwriter.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

      I've heard them quote 80K a year average for a working screenwriter in L.A. As for the 100,000 pool of scriptnotes listeners, allow me to paint a rosier picture. If you admit the glam factor (people who want to be 'in the biz', 'near the scene', 'live in L.A.', slightly more than their love of writing, etc.), the numbers are not all that overwhelming, say, in comparison to aspiring actors (And I lump talk shows, 'celebrities', you-tubers and their other streaming cousins into that mix). Furthermore, it takes more skilz proportionately to be a writer than an actor (good looks don't get you a free pass). Therefore, 100K listeners is really not much of a competition pool. Are we not constantly hearing about how 99% of the stuff out there is cr@p anyways? Apply yourself, subtract the delusional from the equation, and you're home free. Let the dogpiling commence!

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

        Originally posted by LauriD View Post
        Comments?
        Yep. Not easy and the odds are extremely low for sustained success. That's why arguments about whether it's premise or writing ability muddle the real point. You have to write a great story and write it really well to get noticed. Craig Mazin said it well. You want a career, you do both. There are no shortcuts around this fact. No easier roads to take.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

          Seems like if you're in this for the money, you're better off going into the "screenwriting services" industry - writing a screenwriting book, offering consulting/analysis services, starting a contest, starting a pitchfest, starting an online site like BL or VPF. The industry is a huge business, would be interesting to know how much it generates a year.
          "I love being a writer. What I can't stand is the paperwork.-- Peter De Vries

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

            Your only competition is you.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

              Originally posted by UpandComing View Post
              Seems like if you're in this for the money, you're better off going into the "screenwriting services" industry - writing a screenwriting book, offering consulting/analysis services, starting a contest, starting a pitchfest, starting an online site like BL or VPF. The industry is a huge business, would be interesting to know how much it generates a year.
              I suspect it's more than all WGA members earn in a year.

              Kinda like how more people got rich selling blue jeans to gold miners than actually mining gold...
              "People who work in Hollywood are the ones who didn't quit." -- Lawrence Kasdan

              Please visit my website and blog: www.lauridonahue.com.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

                Originally posted by LauriD View Post
                On the April 23 Scriptnotes podcast, a listener asked what income a successful screenwriter could "expect- to make.

                http://johnaugust.com/podcast

                John and Craig said that it could be millions of dollars per year - but only for about 40 or so of the top screenwriters. They also said that lower-tier screenwriters could make hundreds of thousands of dollars per year.

                I suspect that many listeners tuned out what they said about the odds and focused on those dollar signs. So in the interest of providing a reality check I suggest the following analysis:

                1. The universe of people "interested- in screenwriting is at least the size of the Scriptnotes listenership: about 100,000.

                2. The universe of people who are serious about being screenwriters is probably much smaller. The most prestigious (and I believe the largest) amateur screenwriting competition is the Nicholl Fellowship competition. In 2012, the Nicholl received a record 7,197 scripts.

                http://www.oscars.org/awards/nicholl/

                People can enter up to 3 scripts each, and the number of entrants in 2012 was about 5,500.

                http://messageboard.donedealpro.com/...299#post865299 (post 105)

                Thus, the universe of people who are serious about becoming professional screenwriters is at least 5,500 - but could be many times that number.

                3. The number of people who broke in by selling a spec in 2012 was 19 (including several writing teams). (There were 132 total spec scales in 2012, but most were by pros.)

                http://blog.blcklst.com/category/spec-script-sales/

                19 out of 5,500 translates to odds of 3/1000 or 1/333.

                4. Selling a spec script to a WGA signatory is one way to join the WGA:

                "Approximately 1500 players drafted into Major League baseball every year; approximately 300 new members admitted to the WGAW every year.-

                http://www.wga.org/Common/Templates/...px?pageid=4634

                So only 6% get in by selling a feature spec. Most get in via TV, new media, writing assignments, etc.

                5. Becoming a member of the WGA is a requirement for working for WGA signatories (including all the major studios).

                However, becoming a member of the WGA, as hard as it is, does not guarantee that a writer can earn a living from screenwriting -- let alone get rich.

                6. The WGA has at least 12,000 members. (Surprisingly, the reported numbers vary considerably from source to source...)

                http://www.wgawregistry.org/webrss/

                In 2011 only 4,338 of those members (36%) reported receiving ANY income from screenwriting.

                http://www.wga.org/subpage_whoweare.aspx?id=230

                7. "Most writers are middle class; 46% did not even work last year. Of those who do work, one quarter make less than $37,700 a year and 50% make less than $105,000 a year. Over a five year period of employment and unemployment, a writer's average income is $62,000 per year.-

                Writers Guild of America, West (2007)

                (there are multiple references to this stat, which doesn't seem to be live on the WGA site any more)

                8. Put these stats together and the average aspiring professional screenwriting has a .3% chance of earning $62,000/year, which means that the expected return from an investment in screenwriting is $186 - less than the cost of FinalDraft 8 ($249).

                (Of course, far more than 99 out of 100 will actually earn nothing.)

                9. To me, this suggests that screenwriting should be regarded as a relatively inexpensive hobby that very rarely yields financial rewards.

                IMO, it makes sense to write screenplays if you love to write screenplays, but it makes no sense to write screenplays with the expectation of getting rich in the process, or to make serious personal/financial sacrifices in the course of that pursuit.

                (For example, borrowing $36,000+ per year to get an MFA in screenwriting is tantamount to financial suicide, since it doesn't improve the odds in any significant way.)

                Comments?
                Translation: People who are good at their jobs make more money.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

                  "Never tell me the odds."
                  - Han Solo

                  "So you're telling me there's a chance?"
                  - Lloyd Christmas

                  I don't really understand what odds and chance have to do with starting a career in any field. It's not like you drop your name in a hat and that's your chance to become a screenwriter.

                  Yeah, there's a lot of competition but also a lot of it sucks.

                  Also, sorry if you get an MFA from USC, UCLA or NYU, you are definitely increasing your odds. I don't have a cost benefit analysis of it, but you make a lot of contacts and relationships with people that way.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

                    Originally posted by Chief View Post
                    Your only competition is you.
                    Unless you want to get paid.
                    "You have idea 1, you're excited. It flops. You have idea 99, you're excited. It flops.
                    Only a fool is excited by the 100th idea. Fools keep trying. God rewards fools." --Martin Hellman, paraphrased

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

                      Originally posted by ATB View Post
                      Translation: People who are good at their jobs make more money.
                      I graduated from college with a degree in English, but I had taken a few computer programming classes. That was enough to get me hired as a programmer trainee. From there, I continued to learn on the job and advance in my engineering career until I was quite well paid. I broke into this field despite that I wasn't particularly good at it when I started.

                      I think this is still a scenario that is played out in many fields. You get hired as an intern or trainee, you learn your craft on the job, your salary increases. You may not start out "good," but you become good. You are hired based on potential, not according to what you've already accomplished in the field.

                      With screenwriting, you're expected to master your craft in a virtual vacuum before anyone will give you the time of day. This is part of why it is way more difficult to break into than other fields, even if you're very good at it.

                      My website:www.marjorykaptanoglu.com

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

                        Originally posted by WaitForIt View Post
                        Unless you want to get paid.
                        But doing it just for the money is such a short-sighted goal. Hell, doing for the fame and prestige is short-sighted.

                        When I see the aforedisplayed statistics here, what's that supposed to do? Scare the **** out of me, let alone other writers? Maybe. The thing is I've been writing fiction for a long time, since high school. Have I been published? Only one short story on the Internet. Have I been paid? No. I almost got the chance to co-write a pilot script this year, but the funding never came through. I'm sad, but I'm writing. I recently got two union waivers while working as a background extra. I'm almost in SAG-AFTRA, yet I'm writing. Maybe I have better odds than anyone of breaking in, but I'm still writing.

                        Like Chief posted, the only competition you have to worry about is you. Can you be a better writer than the one you were in the past? You damn well better be.
                        "A screenwriter is much like being a fire hydrant with a bunch of dogs lined up around it.- -Frank Miller

                        "A real writer doesn't just want to write; a real writer has to write." -Alan Moore

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

                          Writing only for the love of writing Vs writing to get paid and make movies:

                          It's the difference between masturbation and sex.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

                            I find these types of posts odd. IMHO most pursuits of a creative career will no doubt have heavy odds stacked against the person wishing to succeed. From ballet dancers to sculptors to actors and so on and so on. Writing's no different.

                            Go and tell a musician with dreams of gold discs, platinum selling albums, #1 after #1 and world tours gallore about a writers odds. I'd be surprised if you got anything more than a shrug of the shoulders in return.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: What a successful screenwriter can expect to earn - Scriptnotes for April 23

                              Originally posted by LauriD View Post
                              Comments?
                              Calculate less

                              Comment

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