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Old 03-18-2020, 03:31 PM   #91
Friday
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

A lot of those that have it are asymptomatic or show very little signs of it. A lot of people probably were already walking around it. Some cities seem to have more, but that just might be that they are tested more there. I was kind of concerned when I saw footage of all those people rushing back from the ravaged countries packed closely together in airports trying to beat the deadline of the travel ban. The only thing they did was check for fever, but most of the people with the virus don't even show that many symptoms. The NBA players didn't even realize they had it. You do see a lot of disappointing behavior by some people who are still congregating at the beach, bars, etc. Some bars even defied the order until the authorities came personally to ask them to shut down. I really can't believe what's happening. I can't even remember life being disrupted like this. I am not used to being cooped up this long.
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Old 03-18-2020, 03:34 PM   #92
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

China and South Korea have been able to slow down the new cases because they have taken more drastic measures. Clearly, we need to get everyone to just stay inside for 3 weeks. This can't drag on for a year. The economy cannot handle that. All those restaurants and mom and pop stores we love will not survive that long. Probably months at most. I know their margins. The ones with the high rent and the high payroll will be the first ones to go. Carryout food business is only a slight fraction.
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Old 03-18-2020, 04:40 PM   #93
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

Today they were talking about 18 months with "waves" of infections. My sister is an RN, she's going to do her job regardless of whether she has a mask, that's who she is... she's healthy. I really want to know if you can get it more than once.

I'm beginning to think that after this, so much revenue will be lost in the industry that it might just change the landscape and we might see more mid-range films getting made as a way to slowly recover. I mean, can they just come out of the gate with the huge blockbusters? I guess maybe they only need a few for the studios to get back on track?

Anyone have any insights? Could the shutdown have an impact on the WGA/ATA dispute?

I saw on Slovak news last week that American tanks were on trains through Europe headed for Ukraine... Here's an article that shows US and Nato forces conducting exercises... https://providencemag.com/2020/03/na...-deter-russia/ once they get to their destination maybe they should just stay in place-- just in case.
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Old 03-18-2020, 04:50 PM   #94
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Friday View Post
China and South Korea have been able to slow down the new cases because they have taken more drastic measures. Clearly, we need to get everyone to just stay inside for 3 weeks.

As a former security consultant, I am really concerned about you guys there. From my Prague perch I see too many things going wrong if this does not happen. There are just too many guns, divisions on too many lines. Terrible timing. Here you can't pay cash anymore for delivery of food, so if you do not have a card you must go out and some people are just too afraid to do that. I can not imagine that process being implemented there but it is helping here. This way delivery people are leaving at doors. Kind of like the drop the ODguy off smoking tires burn-off.



Hey it is just a flu, I am healthy...ok. Simpleton. I hope y'all rise above this without too much more panache but hell we 'squab' for fast food sandwiches. Be careful and do the right thing please, ALL.
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Old 03-18-2020, 06:45 PM   #95
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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I am not used to being cooped up this long.
Then imagine being an astronaut or cosmonaut on a space station or on a mission to Mars.
If you’re in L.A., head for the hills (unless they’re on fire again).
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Old 03-19-2020, 03:47 AM   #96
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

What does this pandemic mean for the film and tv industry? Are they still going to be buying up shows and movie projects?
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Old 03-19-2020, 05:03 AM   #97
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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Why are spring break idiots gathering on beaches? Today we hear that the young are at greater risk than previously thought. A part of me wonders if they aren't saying that just to get these idiots to start taking this pandemic seriously.
Because we're not being told the right information. Too much emphasis from the top has been on mortality rates, and not enough on hospitalization rates.
  • Something like 80% of Americans will become infected (265 million sick people).
  • Of those, 15-20% of them will need hospitalization (39-53 million people; the US has 0.924 million hospital beds).
  • Of those people, half of the hospitalized will be under the age of 47 -- our laissez faire group. Since really young kids don't seem to get it as badly, let's project that 19 million people between the ages of 18-47 will be hospitalized (still only 0.924 beds for them to lie in).
  • Of those young 19 million (the low side), 380,000 will need an ICU bed. There are roughly 100,000 TOTAL ICU beds in the US. But those beds will probably already have older people in them by the time this demo group gets that sick.
I don't think we've flattened the curve nearly enough.

Data sources:

https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/...ot-invincible/

Last edited by Done Deal Pro : 03-19-2020 at 08:05 AM. Reason: Cleard out extra spacing
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Old 03-19-2020, 05:22 AM   #98
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by MoviePen View Post
Because we're not being told the right information. Too much emphasis from the top has been on mortality rates, and not enough on hospitalization rates.
  • Something like 80% of Americans will become infected (265 million sick people).
  • Of those, 15-20% of them will need hospitalization (39-53 million people; the US has 0.924 million hospital beds).
  • Of those people, half of the hospitalized will be under the age of 47 -- our laissez faire group. Since really young kids don't seem to get it as badly, let's project that 19 million people between the ages of 18-47 will be hospitalized (still only 0.924 beds for them to lie in).
  • Of those young 19 million (the low side), 380,000 will need an ICU bed. There are roughly 100,000 TOTAL ICU beds in the US. But those beds will probably already have older people in them by the time this demo group gets that sick.
I don't think we've flattened the curve nearly enough.



Data sources:

https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/...ot-invincible/
None of that will make a dent. I usually use Facebook for posting family pics but I’ve engaged these past couple of weeks with people on there on this subject. People are too far gone. Zero critical thinking. We are doomed, be it this thing or the next.
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Old 03-19-2020, 06:56 AM   #99
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

Hope everyone is well (physically AND emotionally).

I presume this is no time to be sending things out. Or is business still being conducted in the industry? I can't image anyone committing any money to anything right now...

Good time to hunker down and write (and watch great films too). I'm revising a screenplay I wrote last year that's basically a road movie that takes place in the near future after climate change wreaks havoc. Kind of fits the current mood, in a way.

I wonder if there will be a pandemic film in the coming years? I never saw The Stand, was it any good? I tried reading the book on a flight but it just didn't hook me.

Stay well everyone.

And I'm afraid I have to agree an appalling number of Americans seem to have no clue what we're dealing with here. Part of that is lack of leadership from the top and rife misinformation, but I'm afraid there's just a great deal of ignorance out there as well. When I saw firsthand accounts from doctors in Italy about ten days ago, and put that together with the data I was seeing, that's when it hit me that we are in for a potentially devastating experience here because we're so woefully unprepared.

There will be some great stories of human goodness, bravery, and compassion that come out of this--but the opposite is also true. The social isolation will be extremely hard, and in 1918-19 it really frayed the social fabric badly in some areas of the U.S. Fear and distrust arose, especially in places where the authorities destroyed their credibility by lying (Philadelphia was exhibit A--contrast with San Francisco). I pray we don't see ugly behavior and violence but that is a very real possibility I'm afraid.

Last edited by Done Deal Pro : 03-19-2020 at 08:04 AM. Reason: Cleared out extra spacing.
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Old 03-19-2020, 08:48 AM   #100
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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The weird thing (to me at least) is who's getting. SARS, MERS, EBOLA, H1N1 never heard a single name I recognized if indeed I heard a single name out of the media coverage at all.

COVID 19 we have Tom Hanks and his wife, President of Brazil I think I heard, several sports stars, the wives of the presidents or Prime ministers of France, Spain and Canada and now I've just seen Idris Elba has tested positive. That seems a higher that normal ratio for 170k people affected globally?
Not the Prez of Brazil (one of his aides), but Tom et al, yes.

Naturally, I wish Tom and Rita all the best. I'm exactly his age. One thing, given his celebrity, his case may draw attention to an important aspect about this disease that seems to be under-discussed: That is, once you get it (and recover), are you now immune and are you no longer a carrier who can spread it? That should put us all 50 percent more at ease. That's one of the things that the film Contagion did really well in presenting.

Otherwise, we'll all have to put up with this until there's a cure/vaccine, or if hopes come to pass that a hot Summer vastly reduces the threat of the thing.

Speaking of a vaccine, not only is it being under-analyzed, there doesn't seem to be nearly enough $$$ being devoted to one. Typical of politicians, there just seems to be a competition about how many billions and trillions they're going to hand out to people (and businesses) to stay home, or to buy therapeutic supplies for handling cases in the hospital, and of course who's to blame for it all.

There was one article about a test vaccine being administered to Test Patient Zero, and I'd like to know more. This should be a world-wide effort, without competition or secrecy: Nobel Prizes for everyone!
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