The current spec market

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  • The current spec market

    An interesting thing is happening in the spec market...

    As a reflection of everyone in the industry believing very few studios are buying right now, less spec scripts went out for the month of April then that of Feb. and March. These are the numbers from Spec Market Roundup: 62 specs went out in Feb. and 77 specs went out in March. Only 46 went out in April.

    But yet April was a good month because even though less specs went out, the percentage of sales actually went up. Of those 46 specs, 10 sold (with only one of those selling with a star attachment).

    Why is this? Maybe April was just an anomaly. But some insiders think because of the dreary psychology of the market, where everyone believes the market is basically at an all-time low, agents and managers are now being extremely picky (more than usual) about the material they go out with. The days of just throwing half-baked (or even mostly-baked) specs against the wall and seeing what sticks are over. Reps are now pushing their writers harder to make their scripts better -- specs must be a "go script" and not just a writing sample, thus the quality of specs are higher.

    Obviously, none of this is a exact science, but keep an eye out for this trend to possibly continue...less specs leads to higher quality (hopefully) leads to more sales. And life finally breathing back into the market.




    *The above does not take into account pitches, writing assignments, or sales from other source materials.
    Last edited by The White Album; 05-09-2009, 01:38 PM.
    Twitter: @WriterLe

  • #2
    Re: The current spec market

    Wow, very interesting fact. I'm going to step out and say its an anamoly or at least a short lived trend. But we'll see.

    Don't get me wrong, I hope you're right. But its an old system, I don't think a recession will change much long term.
    http://thekillbox.wordpress.com/

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    • #3
      Re: The current spec market

      How long do you think it will be until we see a dramatic shift back to the ways it used to be?

      Like 90's level spec script sales. Will it ever be anywhere near levels like that again?
      Write.Sell.Repeat.

      Theoretically...

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      • #4
        Re: The current spec market

        Originally posted by tha son View Post
        How long do you think it will be until we see a dramatic shift back to the ways it used to be?

        Like 90's level spec script sales. Will it ever be anywhere near levels like that again?
        Tough to predict the future, but I wouldn't hold my breath hoping to see things go back to the way they ever were in the past.

        The industry is in a state of change. We're not going back to old business models.

        I'd suggest everyone be prepared to adapt. New opportunities will certainly arise, but old methods will die out very quickly. Don't get caught holding onto the past. It won't be a safe haven.
        Last edited by prescribe22; 05-09-2009, 02:56 PM.

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        • #5
          Re: The current spec market

          Originally posted by tha son View Post

          Like 90's level spec script sales. Will it ever be anywhere near levels like that again?
          No.
          Twitter: @WriterLe

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          • #6
            Re: The current spec market

            Originally posted by prescribe22 View Post
            Tough to predict the future, but I wouldn't hold my breath hoping to see things go back to the way they ever were in the past.

            The industry is in a state of change. We're not going back to old business models.

            I'd suggest everyone be prepared to adapt. New opportunities will certainly arise, but old methods will die out very quickly. Don't get caught holding onto the past. It won't be a safe haven.
            Everything old is new again.

            Business usually operates in cycles. If a few more movies based on original scripts like TAKEN pull in mega-bucks at the box office, and a few more comic book movies like WATCHMEN tank, it will create the perception that people want original material. Then specs could become hot again. Then the prices would go up. And up.

            Until eventually someone realizes that they can just buy the rights to some crappy comic book and pay some no name writer scale instead of seven figures for an original spec. And that movie will be a hit. And everyone will start looking to adapt.

            But regardless of if this will happen, or when, I'm not sure how much it matters now. Are you supposed to sit on your scripts until specs are hot again? No. So yeah, I agree with the "don't hold your breath" sentiment.

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            • #7
              Re: The current spec market

              Originally posted by grant View Post
              Until eventually someone realizes that they can just buy the rights to some crappy comic book and pay some no name writer scale instead of seven figures for an original spec. And that movie will be a hit. And everyone will start looking to adapt.
              .
              Maybe for a "crappy comic book" but in terms of the tentpoles that invade the multiplexes and take jobs away from spec writers, those franchise flicks pay top dollar for story rights and scripts.

              Per Wikipedia:

              -Laura Croft cost 4 mil for story rights and script.
              -Terminator 3 cost 14 mil for story rights and the script was 5 mil +. -Spiderman 2: 20 mil for story rights, 10 mil for script !!!!!

              Those might be extreme and a little dated, but I'm fairly certain the writers for hire on most of the major adaptations, prequels sequels etc are being paid handsomely, much more than the average spec. I mean, on a film with a budget of several hundred millions of dollars, well, the script would have to be worth a certain minimum, right? And when studios are spending all that cash on a film aren't they also more likely to bring in the top guns of screenwriting to make sure the script is the best it can be? They're probably not going to take chances on a no-name for a film they're spending 200 million on.

              As for other genres, the dramas romcoms etc., no idea what writers for hire are making. Anybody?

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              • #8
                Re: The current spec market

                Originally posted by Rantanplan View Post
                Maybe for a "crappy comic book" but in terms of the tentpoles that invade the multiplexes and take jobs away from spec writers, those franchise flicks pay top dollar for story rights and scripts.

                Per Wikipedia:

                -Laura Croft cost 4 mil for story rights and script.
                -Terminator 3 cost 14 mil for story rights and the script was 5 mil +. -Spiderman 2: 20 mil for story rights, 10 mil for script !!!!!

                Those might be extreme and a little dated, but I'm fairly certain the writers for hire on most of the major adaptations, prequels sequels etc are being paid handsomely, much more than the average spec. I mean, on a film with a budget of several hundred millions of dollars, well, the script would have to be worth a certain minimum, right? And when studios are spending all that cash on a film aren't they also more likely to bring in the top guns of screenwriting to make sure the script is the best it can be? They're probably not going to take chances on a no-name for a film they're spending 200 million on.

                As for other genres, the dramas romcoms etc., no idea what writers for hire are making. Anybody?
                I was exaggerating to make a point about cycles. I don't think they're crappy.

                When specs were selling well, Roger Corman owned the rights to the Fantastic Four. I'm sure he didn't pay a lot, because he's Roger Corman, and because comic book movies weren't hot at the time. So in a hypothetical market where original specs become hot and remakes are out, the rights price will go down and spec prices will go up. Supply and demand. In this hypothetical market, it could eventually become cheaper to do an adaptation. And if the "crappy" comic book movie is a big enough of a hit to kick off a new trend, the price on adaptations will start going up, and the premium on original specs will go down, repeating the cycle.

                That's all I was saying. I wasn't trying to get all judgemental about remakes.

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                • #9
                  Re: The current spec market

                  Originally posted by grant View Post
                  Everything old is new again.

                  Business usually operates in cycles. If a few more movies based on original scripts like TAKEN pull in mega-bucks at the box office, and a few more comic book movies like WATCHMEN tank, it will create the perception that people want original material. Then specs could become hot again. Then the prices would go up. And up.
                  There's a LOT of truth to the everything old is new again statement.

                  That said, I do not think the spec market will approach what it was in 90s or even what it was just a few years ago. At least not in time for it to matter to any of us here.

                  I hope I am wrong and you are right, though.

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                  • #10
                    Re: The current spec market

                    Originally posted by grant View Post
                    That's all I was saying. I wasn't trying to get all judgemental about remakes.
                    Yeah I wasn't arguing that either, just the money factor since you seemed to be saying specs cost more money to the studios. I think studios pay major major bucks to writers for those massive franchise pics, whereas in a perfect world they would be paying us instead: less money but for more original material So really we should all be boycotting those films.

                    But for the average pic, i.e. medium budget romcom or such, it is probably true that it is less expensive to hire a writer than to bid on a hot spec. Just my guess, I don't know nottin'. A hot spec probably collects more cash than an assignment for a romcom, no doubt.

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                    • #11
                      Re: The current spec market

                      Originally posted by boski
                      How many specs went out in April of 2008? That would be interesting to know.



                      I can see people trying to argue this point, but I really wonder if it's true. Are April's 46 specs truly and clearly higher quality than March's? Or February's?

                      I'd be surprised if that was the case.

                      And what's the difference between a "go script" and a good writing sample exactly?

                      What makes a spec a "go script"? And what does that mean? That it won't be developed? I can't believe that's true.

                      But I've heard this notion of a "go script" being thrown around before, so it would be interesting and helpful to get some kind of workable definition of what that means.

                      How do the buyers define a "go script" as opposed to the other kinds of spec scripts?

                      What would be really helpful is if an Insider could give us a list of recent "go" specs, as defined by Insiders. Presumably, if the argument holds, many (if not most) of those ten April spec sales would be "go" scripts.

                      Anecdotally, I got a copy of that ODYSSEUS sale, tallied as a spec sale, I believe, and the draft I have isn't even close to being a "go" spec IMO. In fact, the draft I have isn't even a polished script at all. But maybe there's a later draft out there...

                      Anyway, I'd really like someone in the know to give us the titles, out of those ten April spec sales, that are widely acknowledged to be "go scripts."

                      Because if the argument being put forward by the Insiders is true, these scripts would be very valuable study guides for writers tackling this new spec market.
                      Yep. There is no difference go/spec. Just semantics. Writing won't get better because it 'has' to. It is what it is.
                      Doth thou desirest a slapping? - William Shakespeare

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                      • #12
                        Re: The current spec market

                        Originally posted by boski
                        What makes a spec a "go script"? And what does that mean? That it won't be developed? I can't believe that's true.
                        Like most things in Hollywood, the term a "go script" can mean several things at different stages -- but it basically describes a script that is in good enough shape to take the project to the next level.

                        In an ideal world a "go script" would be a script that sells and requires no development and goes straight into production. But no such perfect script exists, it's a unicorn.

                        So mostly, a "go script" is a script that sells and does not need immediate development but is in good enough shape to be taken to a director or talent. And then development is done AFTER the attachment is made, and notes are guided through the vision of the attachment. Here's where it gets tricky because if the project then gets stuck in development hell (i.e. writers can't figure it out, directors come and go, studio can't agree on the budget, etc) then it ceases to become a "go script" until whatever writer comes in and finally nails it -- then that new draft becomes a "go script" if it sends the film into production.

                        That has been my experience with the term "go script". I don't pretend to be an expert on anything, so I could be wrong...

                        But if you're asking me what makes up the quality of a "go script" in the same way you would ask what makes up the quality of a good script? Hell, I don't know...
                        Last edited by The White Album; 05-09-2009, 11:19 PM.
                        Twitter: @WriterLe

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                        • #13
                          Re: The current spec market

                          Originally posted by The White Album View Post
                          Like most things in Hollywood, the term a "go script" can mean several things at different stages -- but it basically describes a script that is in good enough shape to take the project to the next level.

                          In an ideal world a "go script" would be a script that sells and requires no development and goes straight into production. But no such perfect script exists, it's a unicorn.

                          So mostly, a "go script" is a script that sells and does not need immediate development but is in good enough shape to be taken to a director or talent. And then development is done AFTER the attachment is made, and notes are guided through the vision of the attachment. Here's where it gets tricky because if the project then gets stuck in development hell (i.e. writers can't figure it out, directors come and go, studio can't agree on the budget, etc) then it ceases to become a "go script" until whatever writer comes in and finally nails it -- then that new draft becomes a "go script" if it sends the film into production.

                          That has been my experience with the term "go script". I don't pretend to be an expert on anything, so I could be wrong...

                          But if you're asking me what makes up the quality of a "go script" in the same way you would ask what makes up the quality of a good script? Hell, I don't know...
                          This is a great bit of industry info - thank you for this insight, Mike. Very useful.

                          It's worthwhile bearing in mind that this could be good for writers in many ways. As I understand it, the payment structure when a script is purchased is such that the writer doesn't get the total sum of the money up front. (ie: sold for 800k against 1.6 million doesn't mean the writer gets that 800k up front, deductions for Uncle Sam notwithstanding). The payments are staggered in steps so the less finished a script is (requiring more development work ie: next step rewrites etc), the higher the writer's risk that they won't get a lot of money loaded in the front OR run the risk of being taken off the project and thus not getting even all of the up front money.

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                          • #14
                            Re: The current spec market

                            Originally posted by tha son View Post
                            How long do you think it will be until we see a dramatic shift back to the ways it used to be?

                            Like 90's level spec script sales. Will it ever be anywhere near levels like that again?
                            I hope so. I have about thirty illegible cocktail napkins sitting in my sock drawer just waiting to hit the open market.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: The current spec market

                              Originally posted by The White Album View Post
                              In an ideal world a "go script" would be a script that sells and requires no development and goes straight into production. But no such perfect script exists, it's a unicorn.
                              Just a note -- I know that Gran Torino was shot as written -- and I believe Eastwood didn't change the scripts for a couple of his academy award winning films that he directed either.

                              Perhaps he's just lucky and keeps finding perfect scripts -- but I think his success and the success of these films is evidence that the development process typically screws up more than it fixes.

                              After all, even for a raw script there's a reason people wanted to make it -- and maybe that reason lies in the rawness, in the feeling that it hasn't been turned into something that's had the uniqueness polished out of it.
                              Steven Palmer Peterson

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