AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

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  • AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

    ...that this will underwhelm at the box office(atleast, in comparison to its projected budget). That's not to say I'm not interested in seeing it or it won't be good...I just don't think it will have quite the mainstream appeal that the studio is expecting. I know many people who aren't really interested in seeing this film and I think it appeals more to a niche audience--Cameron fans and sci-fi fans.

  • #2
    Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

    I think it's going to break plenty of B.O. records.

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    • #3
      Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

      No matter how much it makes, I fail to see how it can possible make its money back. It appeals to a much smaller audience than Titanic.
      Chicks Who Script podcast

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      • #4
        Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

        I think that it will have a big opening weekend and maybe a nice second weekend but then start to trail off. I don't think it will be a flop though.

        Dark Destroyer

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        • #5
          Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

          Originally posted by emily blake View Post
          It appeals to a much smaller audience than Titanic.
          I'm not so sure about this anymore with these types of films. I know a few friends (women) that are really excited about it and they're into "chick flicks" and hardly the demographic I would think would be interested in this. There's a certain "romantic" flair about this one that has me wondering if it'll have a wider net than most might think. I think the trailers are pretty clever with appealing to wider audiences. We'll see I suppose but I think we're going to be surprised here. I for one can't wait for it, and my kids talk about it a lot too. I think this has the potential to break weekend numbers for sure, at the least.

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          • #6
            Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

            I think the domostic will be high but not obscene. The overseas take will push it into blockbuster territory.
            Half a bubble off level... systems normal.

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            • #7
              Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

              Reviews will be out very soon, and if they all say how great it is, people will be going to see it over christmas instead of something like Sherlock Holmes.

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              • #8
                Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

                People won't see it because it's huge budget (or even because Jim Cameron did it). People don't care about budgets; they want to connect emotionally -- and they also want to see stars they enjoy. The trailers for Avatar just don't do it. I've seen the trailer before lots of movies and I can see that the audiences are underwhelmed. Yes, it may open strong. But it will be considered a big flop in the end. Watch for some of the lower budget but more emotionally powerful movies to beat it this holiday season.

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                • #9
                  Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

                  Early projections (based on awareness) are for AVATAR to do around $60 million opening weekend.

                  Also -- and take this with a grain of salt on account of the org's somewhat questionable reputation -- but apparently the Hollywood Foreign Press Association was treated to an early screening of the pic last week and unofficial word is that it went like gangbusters. To the point there are whispers of AVATAR getting a Golden Globe nom for Best Picture.

                  FYI, if anyone has HBO On Demand, there's a nice 13 minute First Look at the film (also available in HD if you have the means). It's pretty cool.

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                  • #10
                    Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

                    I think the trailers and TV spots should have pushed the romantic element of the story a bit more to hopefully attract a wider audience. There are plenty of action shots, but not very much focus on the romance angle.

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                    • #11
                      Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

                      Oh, but this is all so much meaningless speculation.

                      You know why Titanic did so well? Because it had legs. No one knew pre-release who the audience was for that one, but whoever they were, they kept Titanic's coffers lined with number one weekends for almost half a year. That's how it hit that elusive 600 million figure. Movies used to perform like Titanic all the time, but screens crowded with slick blockbusters ensured it would be the last of its kind.

                      These type of legs are frankly impossible in today's crowded blockbuster seasons. I would say that it would have almost been possible last summer, because it would seem that the writer's strike made most of the studio tentpoles terrible (I say most because somehow J.J. Abrams pulled off Star Trek, flawed script and all) and a truly good movie could have stuck around pumping out 30 million dollar weekends for five months.

                      What Cameron appears to be attempting is an old fashioned event film (with ironically cutting edge tech), the type of movie that plays like Titanic or Gone With the Wind because people want to get swept up in the epic romance of it all again and again, and take friends, and tell anyone who will listen about it. The 3D seems to be the icing on the cake, an extra incentive to seek out the theatrical experience. It's a big gamble and true to Cameron's penchant for showmanship. I just don't know if people will go for it anymore, we're jaded with the prices and special-effects extravaganzas. Cameron is right that we don't have enough BIG ASS STORIES on the screen, like Lawrence of Arabia or most of the stuff on his own resume. But that doesn't mean he's infallible.

                      Even if the film costs the reported 500 million with promotional budget all-in, it won't even come close to being a failure. Titanic didn't make 600 million, in made 2 billion worldwide. DVD and Blu Ray sales, broadcasting contracts, merchandise, and all the other bells and whistles of a movie this big will pay it off, if not make its producers and investors rich. Movies do not live and die on their opening weekends, despite the general perception that this is the case. Look at Titanic's opening weekend, does it seem like a contender for biggest film of all time?

                      Anything between 200 and 800 million is possible in my opinion. But it's all rather meaningless to discuss until we have some facts, no?

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                      • #12
                        Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

                        Also important to remember that the way the project has been structured financially, Cameron is not just looking to make money back for the investors (which include a hedge fund I think) via the BO itself, but from every stream possible.

                        The Avatar game is going to come out soon (if not already out) and there is a heavy emphasis on getting return on investment back through the technology that Cameron spent like...6 years perfecting...including the camera. Fox (which is releasing the film) is apparently not that heavy an investor in this film.

                        Cameron isn't just selling a movie here - he's selling a technology, that promises the entertainment industry a new generation of films that will offer audiences an entirely different cinematic experience. The film might arguably almost be an afterthought, a proof-of-concept as it were of the technology. And if that works, Cameron and Weta (that did the SFXs) will do for 3D and films what ILM did years ago.

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                        • #13
                          Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

                          I think it finishes around $280-$320 million domestic.


                          This movie isn't going to break any records, but it will be an instant classic to a lot of people; making it the favorite to have the longest shelf life of any 2009 film.

                          No way it f*cks with the superhero's claim to opening weekends.

                          $400 million would be colossal for AVATAR, but not likely.
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                          • #14
                            Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

                            No, no, no, you people have it all wrong. The winner will clearly be, Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel.

                            In 4D! FTW!
                            @TerranceMulloy

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                            • #15
                              Re: AVATAR--I have the sneaking suspicion....

                              I'm a big sci fi fan (books and movies) but so far the Avatar marketing hasn't grabbed me.

                              i'll put $10 into the sweepstake at 195 million
                              ________
                              24 FORUM
                              Last edited by Southern_land; 05-13-2011, 06:29 AM.
                              I heard the starting gun


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