On the April 23 Scriptnotes podcast, a listener asked what income a successful screenwriter could "expect- to make.
http://johnaugust.com/podcast
John and Craig said that it could be millions of dollars per year - but only for about 40 or so of the top screenwriters. They also said that lower-tier screenwriters could make hundreds of thousands of dollars per year.
I suspect that many listeners tuned out what they said about the odds and focused on those dollar signs. So in the interest of providing a reality check I suggest the following analysis:
1. The universe of people "interested- in screenwriting is at least the size of the Scriptnotes listenership: about 100,000.
2. The universe of people who are serious about being screenwriters is probably much smaller. The most prestigious (and I believe the largest) amateur screenwriting competition is the Nicholl Fellowship competition. In 2012, the Nicholl received a record 7,197 scripts.
http://www.oscars.org/awards/nicholl/
People can enter up to 3 scripts each, and the number of entrants in 2012 was about 5,500.
http://messageboard.donedealpro.com/...299#post865299 (post 105)
Thus, the universe of people who are serious about becoming professional screenwriters is at least 5,500 - but could be many times that number.
3. The number of people who broke in by selling a spec in 2012 was 19 (including several writing teams). (There were 132 total spec scales in 2012, but most were by pros.)
http://blog.blcklst.com/category/spec-script-sales/
19 out of 5,500 translates to odds of 3/1000 or 1/333.
4. Selling a spec script to a WGA signatory is one way to join the WGA:
"Approximately 1500 players drafted into Major League baseball every year; approximately 300 new members admitted to the WGAW every year.-
http://www.wga.org/Common/Templates/...px?pageid=4634
So only 6% get in by selling a feature spec. Most get in via TV, new media, writing assignments, etc.
5. Becoming a member of the WGA is a requirement for working for WGA signatories (including all the major studios).
However, becoming a member of the WGA, as hard as it is, does not guarantee that a writer can earn a living from screenwriting -- let alone get rich.
6. The WGA has at least 12,000 members. (Surprisingly, the reported numbers vary considerably from source to source...)
http://www.wgawregistry.org/webrss/
In 2011 only 4,338 of those members (36%) reported receiving ANY income from screenwriting.
http://www.wga.org/subpage_whoweare.aspx?id=230
7. "Most writers are middle class; 46% did not even work last year. Of those who do work, one quarter make less than $37,700 a year and 50% make less than $105,000 a year. Over a five year period of employment and unemployment, a writer's average income is $62,000 per year.-
Writers Guild of America, West (2007)
(there are multiple references to this stat, which doesn't seem to be live on the WGA site any more)
8. Put these stats together and the average aspiring professional screenwriting has a .3% chance of earning $62,000/year, which means that the expected return from an investment in screenwriting is $186 - less than the cost of FinalDraft 8 ($249).
(Of course, far more than 99 out of 100 will actually earn nothing.)
9. To me, this suggests that screenwriting should be regarded as a relatively inexpensive hobby that very rarely yields financial rewards.
IMO, it makes sense to write screenplays if you love to write screenplays, but it makes no sense to write screenplays with the expectation of getting rich in the process, or to make serious personal/financial sacrifices in the course of that pursuit.
(For example, borrowing $36,000+ per year to get an MFA in screenwriting is tantamount to financial suicide, since it doesn't improve the odds in any significant way.)
Comments?
http://johnaugust.com/podcast
John and Craig said that it could be millions of dollars per year - but only for about 40 or so of the top screenwriters. They also said that lower-tier screenwriters could make hundreds of thousands of dollars per year.
I suspect that many listeners tuned out what they said about the odds and focused on those dollar signs. So in the interest of providing a reality check I suggest the following analysis:
1. The universe of people "interested- in screenwriting is at least the size of the Scriptnotes listenership: about 100,000.
2. The universe of people who are serious about being screenwriters is probably much smaller. The most prestigious (and I believe the largest) amateur screenwriting competition is the Nicholl Fellowship competition. In 2012, the Nicholl received a record 7,197 scripts.
http://www.oscars.org/awards/nicholl/
People can enter up to 3 scripts each, and the number of entrants in 2012 was about 5,500.
http://messageboard.donedealpro.com/...299#post865299 (post 105)
Thus, the universe of people who are serious about becoming professional screenwriters is at least 5,500 - but could be many times that number.
3. The number of people who broke in by selling a spec in 2012 was 19 (including several writing teams). (There were 132 total spec scales in 2012, but most were by pros.)
http://blog.blcklst.com/category/spec-script-sales/
19 out of 5,500 translates to odds of 3/1000 or 1/333.
4. Selling a spec script to a WGA signatory is one way to join the WGA:
"Approximately 1500 players drafted into Major League baseball every year; approximately 300 new members admitted to the WGAW every year.-
http://www.wga.org/Common/Templates/...px?pageid=4634
So only 6% get in by selling a feature spec. Most get in via TV, new media, writing assignments, etc.
5. Becoming a member of the WGA is a requirement for working for WGA signatories (including all the major studios).
However, becoming a member of the WGA, as hard as it is, does not guarantee that a writer can earn a living from screenwriting -- let alone get rich.
6. The WGA has at least 12,000 members. (Surprisingly, the reported numbers vary considerably from source to source...)
http://www.wgawregistry.org/webrss/
In 2011 only 4,338 of those members (36%) reported receiving ANY income from screenwriting.
http://www.wga.org/subpage_whoweare.aspx?id=230
7. "Most writers are middle class; 46% did not even work last year. Of those who do work, one quarter make less than $37,700 a year and 50% make less than $105,000 a year. Over a five year period of employment and unemployment, a writer's average income is $62,000 per year.-
Writers Guild of America, West (2007)
(there are multiple references to this stat, which doesn't seem to be live on the WGA site any more)
8. Put these stats together and the average aspiring professional screenwriting has a .3% chance of earning $62,000/year, which means that the expected return from an investment in screenwriting is $186 - less than the cost of FinalDraft 8 ($249).
(Of course, far more than 99 out of 100 will actually earn nothing.)
9. To me, this suggests that screenwriting should be regarded as a relatively inexpensive hobby that very rarely yields financial rewards.
IMO, it makes sense to write screenplays if you love to write screenplays, but it makes no sense to write screenplays with the expectation of getting rich in the process, or to make serious personal/financial sacrifices in the course of that pursuit.
(For example, borrowing $36,000+ per year to get an MFA in screenwriting is tantamount to financial suicide, since it doesn't improve the odds in any significant way.)
Comments?
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