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Old 03-08-2020, 07:42 PM   #11
Friday
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

It hasn't quite affected the US box office, yet, but it has taken a toll on the overseas box office as theaters in Japan, France, Italy, South Korea, etc. have all seen steep declines. The perception has really hurt the stock of the movie chains.
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Old 03-08-2020, 07:48 PM   #12
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

They said the entertainment industry is expected to take a $5 billion hit due to COVID-19 closures and quarantines.

The community spread tells you what everyone should already know... Coronavirus is already here and spreading as we wait for the tests to arrive. The only reason the numbers are low is because there aren't any tests.

Someone, somewhere along the way has been in contact with someone who traveled to an infected area.

I have a sci-fi epic based on the release of a virus with a high r-naught (RO), or reproductive rate. The flu has an r-naught of 1-1.45, that means on average if a person gets the flu, they typically infect 1 other person. If the R0 is less than one, that virus/disease will burn itself out. Over two and you have an outbreak.

Measles (very highly contagious) has an R0 of 12-18, which means each infected person can infect an additional 12-18 people (who are susceptible) and each one of those 18 people can infect an additional 18 (who are susceptible).

The susceptible population would be anyone who has never been vaccinated, has ever had the disease before (um, that's all of us), and there is no way to contain it.

So with anything over, say, 3 or 4, the numbers become explosive... here's an example:

R0 of 18
1-->18-->324-->5,832-->104,976-->1,889,568-->34,012,224

R0 0f 3
1--> 3--> 9--> 27--> 81--> 243--> 729--> 2,187--> 6,561--> 19,683--> 59,049--> 177,147--> 531,441--> 1,594,323--> 4,782,969--> 14,348,907--> 43,046,721--> 129,140,163--> 387,420,489--> 1,162,261,467--> 3,489,784,401

And that's 3.4 billion in 20 steps. This is WHY early containment and quarantine is imperative, especially early on. There's no vaccine, and we have a population where no one has had the disease before. Containment is the ONLY way we can control the outbreak at this point.

So the fact that we have it here and aren't testing for it means more than likely it's spreading across the US as we wait. We now have 3 cases in Connecticut.

Overnight Italy's infection rate exploded. It more than doubled in less than a week from 2,500 on Wednesday to over 5,800 on Saturday.

The other curious thing is how does 700 people on a cruise ship get infected in a matter of a couple of weeks? Makes one wonder if it didn't come from a food source originally, or that a number of people had it before they boarded the ship.

COVID-19 might not have an R0 of 3, but it's only been 9 weeks and over 109,000 people are infected and 3,800 are dead. That's at a rate of more than 3.5% mortality.

The biggest problem right now is that they simply don't know enough about the virus or the disease.
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Old 03-08-2020, 07:54 PM   #13
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

Well, a huge number of the crew was infected, so I wonder if that was part of the problem. A cruise ship is like a petri dish. All those people trapped in that container. Who knows what the air is like. Or touching any of the surfaces. It's basically shut Italy down. Most of their tourist attractions. A quarter of them are quarantined.



You see all these celebrities wearing those masks. Not sure how effective that is. I really enjoy going to the movies every week, but family and friends are kind of freaked out about the thing. They still go out, but skip the really big events with a lot of people.
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Old 03-08-2020, 08:05 PM   #14
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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Well, a huge number of the crew was infected, so I wonder if that was part of the problem. A cruise ship is like a petri dish. All those people trapped in that container. Who knows what the air is like. Or touching any of the surfaces. It's basically shut Italy down. Most of their tourist attractions. A quarter of them are quarantined.

You see all these celebrities wearing those masks. Not sure how effective that is. I really enjoy going to the movies every week, but family and friends are kind of freaked out about the thing. They still go out, but skip the really big events with a lot of people.
That's a good point about the crew, because they could have been infecting each other for weeks on end, which means it's possible that the cruises before that first cruise identified with the Coronavirus would/could have infected additional people on those prior cruises who then went home, where ever that may have been and spread the virus from there.

That makes sense.

Oil prices dropped 20% today as Saudi Arabia and Russia started a price war to compensate for the huge loss in the travel demand.
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Old 03-08-2020, 09:20 PM   #15
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That's a good point about the crew, because they could have been infecting each other for weeks on end, which means it's possible that the cruises before that first cruise identified with the Coronavirus would/could have infected additional people on those prior cruises who then went home, where ever that may have been and spread the virus from there.

That makes sense.

Oil prices dropped 20% today as Saudi Arabia and Russia started a price war to compensate for the huge loss in the travel demand.

Being stuck on that ship really put the passengers at risk. It first started out just a few people, but they were trapped there and then eventually it just exploded. It was 19 of the crew that was infected, so that's a lot of people with it that were interacting with passengers. They have to do something about figuring out how to contain it with safety rooms. There are a few hospitals that are equipped with having air vents that do not allow the virus through....and also the crew should have been checked or wear protective gear when handling the food and beverage.


The virus has just been devastating economically. Certain countries and industries have already faced a huge body blow. People are afraid of going on a cruise or flying. Schools, amusement parks, popular tourist attractions, theaters and restaurants have essentially been shut down in several countries. I have no idea what the real numbers are in certain totalitarian countries that might not be as honest about the numbers.



I don't know if you live in L.A. But, has this changed your habits? Are you still going to continue to go to the movies? I had been looking forward to that Bond movie and also seeing Jane Austen's Emma. I still might go, but it's causing me anxiety. It's not so much the virus itself, but the guilt of endangering loved ones and getting quarantined for 14 days.
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Old 03-08-2020, 10:09 PM   #16
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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I don't know if you live in L.A. But, has this changed your habits? Are you still going to continue to go to the movies? I had been looking forward to that Bond movie and also seeing Jane Austen's Emma. I still might go, but it's causing me anxiety. It's not so much the virus itself, but the guilt of endangering loved ones and getting quarantined for 14 days.
LA life is still pretty normal. I went to the movies last weekend to see Emma at Arclight and it was fine. But Coachella, scheduled for next month, is (imo) almost certain to be either canceled or postponed and that's when **** is going to feel like it's getting real here. Also, the cancelations of school classes or remote working that is happening right now up in SF and Seattle is probably going to start hitting LA this week or next.

Of a more macro concern for Hollywood (the industry) is the fact that markets are tanking and look closer to collapse tomorrow than any time since the housing market meltdown in 2008. If credit dries up that has major implications for studios and production companies that rely on debt financing to do their business, which will then trickle down to the front line workers on shows and films. Buckle up!
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Old 03-08-2020, 11:05 PM   #17
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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LA life is still pretty normal. I went to the movies last weekend to see Emma at Arclight and it was fine. But Coachella, scheduled for next month, is (imo) almost certain to be either canceled or postponed and that's when **** is going to feel like it's getting real here. Also, the cancelations of school classes or remote working that is happening right now up in SF and Seattle is probably going to start hitting LA this week or next.

Of a more macro concern for Hollywood (the industry) is the fact that markets are tanking and look closer to collapse tomorrow than any time since the housing market meltdown in 2008. If credit dries up that has major implications for studios and production companies that rely on debt financing to do their business, which will then trickle down to the front line workers on shows and films. Buckle up!

It's that community spread that's freaking everyone out. I think Riverside had someone who was exposed to someone from D.C. There are so many people that are connected to people in San Francisco, that it's worrisome. It's already affected movies like Mission Impossible that had to postpone filming some of their scenes in Italy.



I still went out to restaurants and saw movies the last few weeks, but are you going to go to the movies in the upcoming weeks? Normally, I can only write in coffee shops, but I am rethinking that.
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:03 AM   #18
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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I still went out to restaurants and saw movies the last few weeks, but are you going to go to the movies in the upcoming weeks? Normally, I can only write in coffee shops, but I am rethinking that.
We here in flyover country are doing fine so far (knock on wood). I’m a high-risk candidate (not due to age) to contract the current dangerous strain of coronavirus, but I go to the grocery, go to the movies, the symphony, and generally do what I always have been doing. As a rule, though, my social profile is much lower than that of most people. The saying, “He doesn’t get out much,” applies to me. Except for those activities listed, I’m at home reading and writing 98% of the time. There’s a list of projects I have to complete, and all have a deadline. In my case, this virus outbreak easily could spell my demise, but it’s also a good reason to continue to burrow deep and write more.

Even so, here and there, Life goes on, too. On Saturday I took vintage manual typewriters to a “Type In” held at a local coffee shop. There must have been twenty or more of us there. The organizer didn’t say so, but I suppose the theory was that if people take laptops in and sit at a table for hours, why couldn’t they just as well be typewriters?

With more typewriters than typewriter enthusiasts, each bringing in more than one machine, coffee shop patrons had a chance to take a turn on them, too. In a humorous aside, it confounded some who were new to a typewriter that older typewriters did not have a “1” available.

All those people touching typewriter keys, sharing and taking turns on one another‘s typewriters from Italy, Switzerland, Germany, and the United States, and at no time did anyone wipe down their keyboards before or after the event. There’s no telling what people did when they got home, though.

Since more people are staying home than going out, for me it’s been a great time at afternoon matinées. A couple of times I’ve had a theater all to myself, which is a great experience, I assure you.

The COVID-19 virus lives about nine hours on a surface, and lives longest on metals, I’m told. Masks are useless against it, and antibacterial hand-sanitizers don’t cut it, either, but the good thing is that suddenly everyone is more aware of personal hygiene.

Avoid people who have a cough, as I do, which is always a good practice. The simple fact is, though, that people can be carriers of the virus and not display any symptoms at all, rather like heterosexual women and the AIDS virus.

The best thing to do is to spend 20 seconds singing the chorus to your favorite songs when you wash your hands with soap and water in a public (or any) bathroom. “Goodbye Stranger” works for me, and when I attempt it aloud, it reduces my risk of contraction of the virus by running people out of public bathrooms. Carry disposable travel tissues to use on door handles; it’s a small price to pay to avoid the virus in cities where international travelers throng.

My main concern is for the quality of food in restaurants where less than a living wage is paid to food-service persons. Already underpaid, they cannot afford to be absent from work. Whether or not they know they have the virus, they show up for work. If the virus lives nine hours on surfaces, there’s ample opportunity for virus transfer to occur in restaurants.

Worse, though, is who knows who has the virus without testing kits? Have we as a global society arrived at the point of wearing latex or nitrile gloves to conduct ourselves in public?

As screenwriters, we ought to be thankful of the technology that now allows us to send a PDF by e-mail rather than everyone handling printed scripts. A backlog of extra material could result as more screenwriters stay in rather than go out. The virus can-xed a venue like SXSW, so what’s next? Only time will tell if profitable online screenwriting contests will become the new norm of studio gatekeeping.
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Last edited by TigerFang : 03-09-2020 at 12:32 AM.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:12 AM   #19
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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We here in flyover country are doing fine so far (knock on wood). I’m a high-risk candidate (not due to age) to contract the current dangerous strain of coronavirus, but I go to the grocery, go to the movies, the symphony, and generally do what I always have been doing. As a rule, though, my social profile is much lower than that of most people. The saying, “He doesn’t get out much,” applies to me. Except for those activities listed, I’m at home reading and writing 98% of the time. There’s a list of projects I have to complete, and all have a deadline. In my case, this virus outbreak easily could spell my demise, but it’s also a good reason to continue to burrow deep and write more.

Even so, here and there, Life goes on, too. On Saturday I took vintage manual typewriters to a “Type In” held at a local coffee shop. There must have been twenty or more of us there. The organizer didn’t say so, but I suppose the theory was that if people take laptops in and sit at a table for hours, why couldn’t they just as well be typewriters?

With more typewriters than typewriter enthusiasts, each bringing in more than one machine, coffee shop patrons had a chance to take a turn on them, too. In a humorous aside, it confounded some who were new to a typewriter that older typewriters did not have a “1” available.

All those people touching typewriter keys, sharing and taking turns on one another‘s typewriters from Italy, Switzerland, Germany, and the United States, and at no time did anyone wipe down their keyboards before or after the event. There’s no telling what people did when they got home, though.

Since more people are staying home than going out, for me it’s been a great time at afternoon matinées. A couple of times I’ve had a theater all to myself, which is a great experience, I assure you.

The COVID-19 virus lives about nine hours on a surface, and lives longest on metals, I’m told. Masks are useless against it, and antibacterial hand-sanitizers don’t cut it, either, but the good thing is that suddenly everyone is more aware of personal hygiene.

Avoid people who have a cough, as I do, which is always a good practice. The simple fact is, though, that people can be carriers of the virus and not display any symptoms at all, rather like heterosexual women and the AIDS virus.

The best thing to do is to spend 20 seconds singing the chorus to your favorite songs when you wash your hands with soap and water in a public (or any) bathroom. “Goodbye Stranger” works for me, and when I attempt it aloud, it reduces my risk of contraction of the virus by running people out of public bathrooms. Carry disposable travel tissues to use on door handles; it’s a small price to pay to avoid the virus in cities where international travelers throng.

My main concern is for the quality of food in restaurants where less than a living wage is paid to food-service persons. Already underpaid, they cannot afford to be absent from work. Whether or not they know they have the virus, they show up for work. If the virus lives nine hours on surfaces, there’s ample opportunity for virus transfer to occur in restaurants.

Worse, though, is who knows who has the virus without testing kits? Have we as a global society arrived at the point of wearing latex or nitrile gloves to conduct ourselves in public?

As screenwriters, we ought to be thankful of the technology that now allows us to send a PDF by e-mail rather than everyone handling printed scripts. A backlog of extra material could result as more screenwriters stay in rather than go out. The virus can-xed a venue like SXSW, so what’s next? Only time will tell if profitable online screenwriting contests will become the new norm of studio gatekeeping.

A major tennis tournament was just cancelled. It's almost impossible to avoid people who cough. You'll see them walk by and that spray will be in the air invisible to cling onto people. I saw on 60 minutes, a scientist say that it qualifies as a Pandemic. Italy has taken drastic measures. They have effectively shut down much of the country. Public places are shut down. Restaurants are only allowed limited hours. LA marathon decided to proceed, but they had a steep decline in spectators this year. I actually prefer to watch movies in theaters, eat out and write in public coffee shops or outside venues, so this will take adjusting. I wish the government had just shut down air travel from those affected countries several months ago, so that the possibility of this coming in was reduced. Now, it's already here.
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Old 03-09-2020, 07:01 AM   #20
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Default Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

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Are you still going to continue to go to the movies? I had been looking forward to that Bond movie and also seeing Jane Austen's Emma.
They pushed back the Bond release date to November.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/no-time...gm-1202873876/
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