Lucas and Spielberg say the end is near!

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  • Lucas and Spielberg say the end is near!

    Anyone not see this coming?

    "Going to the movies is going to cost you $50, maybe $100, maybe $150," says George Lucas, the creator of " Star Wars" and founder of Lucasfilm, which is now owned by the Walt Disney Co., ABC's parent company.
    Lucas and director Steven Spielberg talked about the future of entertainment while on a panel at the University of Southern California Thursday.
    Spielberg said studios were increasingly putting money into "mega-budget" movies, causing a tectonic shift in the entertainment industry.
    "There's eventually going to be an implosion, or a big meltdown," Spielberg said. "There's going to be an implosion where three or four, or maybe even a half-dozen mega-budget movies, are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm."

  • #2
    Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

    Lucas is even more of an idiot than I thought if he really thinks folks would pay 50 bucks to watch a movie. Let alone 150...
    "Forget it, Jake. It's Hollywood."

    My YouTube channel.

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    • #3
      Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

      Spielberg is one to talk; his first dollar gross participation make it all but impossible for studios to make money off his pictures, no matter how successful they prove at the b.o.

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      • #4
        Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

        Originally posted by Signal30 View Post
        Lucas is even more of an idiot than I thought if he really thinks folks would pay 50 bucks to watch a movie. Let alone 150...
        He likely means as a family. Father, mom, kid or two, popcorn, drinks . . . it gets pricey.

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        • #5
          Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

          Originally posted by karsten View Post
          He likely means as a family. Father, mom, kid or two, popcorn, drinks . . . it gets pricey.
          It already costs that here for a family. Without the popcorn and drinks.
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          • #6
            Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

            Originally posted by heavenlysurfer View Post
            Anyone not see this coming?

            "Going to the movies is going to cost you $50, maybe $100, maybe $150," says George Lucas, the creator of " Star Wars" and founder of Lucasfilm, which is now owned by the Walt Disney Co., ABC's parent company.
            Lucas and director Steven Spielberg talked about the future of entertainment while on a panel at the University of Southern California Thursday.

            Spielberg said studios were increasingly putting money into "mega-budget" movies, causing a tectonic shift in the entertainment industry.
            "There's eventually going to be an implosion, or a big meltdown," Spielberg said. "There's going to be an implosion where three or four, or maybe even a half-dozen mega-budget movies, are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm."
            I also found an article about this same talk and further down there's this:

            Spielberg said his own Oscar-nominated movie ”Lincoln” was ”this close” to being produced for HBO....“Behind the Candelabra,” the recent HBO movie about the life of pianist Liberace that Steven Soderbergh directed, was a relatively low-budget movie with strong star power intended for adult audiences that hit homes instead of theaters.
            http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business...-george-lucas/
            The HBO/Cable angle is the most intriguing to me. I did a double take when I saw trailers for Behind the Candelabra by HBO. Michael Douglas and Matt Damon in a made-for-TV movie? Wow.

            I'm thinking it's possible Hollwood will gradually become the big 3D/CG extravaganza movie specialists (at $50 per ticket) and everything else will migrate to cable.
            Advice from writer, Kelly Sue DeConnick. "Try this: if you can replace your female character with a sexy lamp and the story still basically works, maybe you need another draft.-

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            • #7
              Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

              The movies will die just like they did in the '50s. It's a fact. Go ahead and get out your good suit for the funeral.

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              • #8
                Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

                Originally posted by sc111 View Post
                The HBO/Cable angle is the most intriguing to me. I did a double take when I saw trailers for Behind the Candelabra by HBO. Michael Douglas and Matt Damon in a made-for-TV movie? Wow.
                It got a cinema release in the UK

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                • #9
                  Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

                  This is all BS, two old men that might be losing it (OK, not Spielberg but the other one) and then try to blame it on the system.

                  They've used Lincoln and Red Tails as an example, saying that they (two big directors) had a hard time getting it in the cinema. But doesn't that go back to being 'high concept' -- Red Tails flopped, and Lincoln didn't even though it was reallly boring!

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                  • #10
                    Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

                    Originally posted by MacG View Post
                    Spielberg is one to talk; his first dollar gross participation make it all but impossible for studios to make money off his pictures, no matter how successful they prove at the b.o.
                    Despite his first dollar gross, his films still make crazy money for the studios.

                    Originally posted by Chief View Post
                    This is all BS, two old men that might be losing it (OK, not Spielberg but the other one) and then try to blame it on the system.

                    They've used Lincoln and Red Tails as an example, saying that they (two big directors) had a hard time getting it in the cinema. But doesn't that go back to being 'high concept' -- Red Tails flopped, and Lincoln didn't even though it was reallly boring!
                    Losing it? Spielberg movies still make ridiculous amounts of money, his latest *drama* film made 180 million in USA alone. And the last three films Lucas directed were massive hits. Of the two movies he has produced since then, Indy 4 was huge.

                    You are talking about two men who still remain among the biggest moneymakers in the business.

                    BTW, rather ironically, Red Tails is exactly a kind of SFX- and action-driven film that should supposedly make money in theaters. It flopped. Lincoln is the kind of talky drama, that supposedly shouldn't make money in theaters. It became a big hit.

                    So I disagree with their point.

                    Regardless,

                    People love the movie format. It has a VERY important place in our lives, and has been since we were little children. The children growing up right now aren't any different.

                    TV-series, games, etc, are going to co-exist with movies. I don't really see movies going away, at least not in the next 100 years or so.

                    I can easily see that there are going to be more and bigger online releases, as people get better and better home theaters in their own houses. The theatre experience might start to die down at some point, but movies won't.

                    But those films will be pay-per-view films. Not HBO TV movies. You pay the 5-10$ to watch the film on premiere. Yeah - Some people will wait for a few days to pirate it. Most won't, because 5$ is very little money to pay. The home premiere system is more likely to benefit smaller budgeted movies. Pay-per view online system will still be good at least to films on the 50-100 million budget range.

                    But this model might kill the 250-300 million blockbuster at some point.

                    The SFX-spectacle films are going to die out in a couple of decades anyway, as a gimmick. Large scale movies will remain, because some stories demand it, but there will become a point when merely big effects are not going to be interesting to audiences anymore, because we have seen it all. And complex and realistic CGI is going to become cheaper and cheaper.
                    Last edited by tuukka; 06-15-2013, 08:45 AM.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Lucas and Spielburg say the end is near!

                      RE: $150 movie ticket, let's keep in mind that this is coming from the guy who brought us Gungans. I'm not a big Lucas-hater but we have to take anything he says with a big grain of salt (he's a bit of a troll, you know). Connecting ticket prices to film budgets is an interesting idea but I'm not sure theaters would want to have to enforce it.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Lucas and Spielberg say the end is near!

                        Originally posted by Richmond Weems View Post
                        The movies will die just like they did in the '50s. It's a fact. Go ahead and get out your good suit for the funeral.

                        The film industry is not immune to industry life-cycle realities and shifts in consumer purchasing trends. The numbers reported over the last decade indicate the US film industry is in what is called the "maturity stage."

                        The number of annual (individual) domestic ticket sales has declined since 2002's 1.5 billion tickets sold. From 2003 to 2011 it eroded to 1.29 billion. There was a slight bump in 2012 to 1.37 billion. But some articles indicate by the end of 2013 we may see another dip in individual tickets sold. http://www.the-numbers.com/market/

                        When you factor in the overall US population in 2002 was 287-million compared to an increase today to a population of 314-million, it's a clear erosion of the US-domestic film market.

                        However, when individual sales erode it indicates an industry -- any industry -- has hit the "maturity stage." When they hit maturation, industries traditionally do a few things to remain in the game -- cut back inventory produced, cut back product selection to only their top sellers, and raise unit prices.

                        Some industries strive to get a foothold in emerging global markets to make up for the loss of domestic markets. However, the high cost of entering and establishing a US industry in a global market can negatively impact net profits. Add to this, as emerging foreign markets grow, they also tend to grow their own domestic industries which increases competition against US industries trying to capture a healthy market share in that particular country.

                        Over the last decade, we've seen the film industry cut back inventory (number of movies produced), cut back product selection to favor their top sellers (tent poles), raise unit ticket prices, and cater to global markets. Clearly they know what's happening in their industry, even if you don't.

                        Through taking these measures, they can keep their gross profits looking good for some time. But once an industry is deeply in the maturity stage there's rarely any real domestic market growth and, at some point, the domestic market will go into full decline.

                        Here's another article about Spielberg's comments which includes a quote from an article in The Economist:
                        Hollywood executives have long been paranoid and insecure. Now they have cause to be. �The business model within film is broken,� says Amir Malin of Qualia Capital, a private-equity firm. Between 2007 and 2011, pre-tax profits of the five studios controlled by large media conglomerates (Disney, Universal, Paramount, Twentieth Century Fox and Warner Bros) fell by around 40%, says Benjamin Swinburne of Morgan Stanley.
                        http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3435818.html
                        As for kids -- it seems to me little kids are already getting used to watching films on smaller screens like Kindle Fire and iPads.
                        Advice from writer, Kelly Sue DeConnick. "Try this: if you can replace your female character with a sexy lamp and the story still basically works, maybe you need another draft.-

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                        • #13
                          Re: Lucas and Spielberg say the end is near!

                          These two are surely part of the problem though. Big budget kings

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                          • #14
                            Re: Lucas and Spielberg say the end is near!

                            Originally posted by heavenlysurfer View Post
                            Anyone not see this coming?

                            "Spielberg said studios were increasingly putting money into "mega-budget" movies, causing a tectonic shift in the entertainment industry.
                            "There's eventually going to be an implosion, or a big meltdown," Spielberg said. "There's going to be an implosion where three or four, or maybe even a half-dozen mega-budget movies, are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm."
                            People have been saying this since Titanic came out. I believe one of the quotes I read was "Titanic dodged it but there is still a $200 million bullet out there with someone's name on it". Well, it's hit several times, that doesn't stop good stories from dodging that bullet.

                            I'm not saying it's not a valid concern and the industry obviously has some adapting to do, but I'm not going to "The end is nigh" idea.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Lucas and Spielberg say the end is near!

                              Originally posted by sc111 View Post
                              As for kids -- it seems to me little kids are already getting used to watching films on smaller screens like Kindle Fire and iPads.
                              When you were a kid, did you ever have or use an electronic device with a similarly sized screen (though probably a different shape) that showed features and serialized shorts, the way tablets can?

                              And let's just link to the Economist article, instead of the HuffPo one quoting it: http://www.economist.com/news/busine...-split-screens.

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