Is this a "soft pass"?

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  • #16
    Re: Is this a "soft pass"?

    There is a list on the WGA website. About a page and a bit of agencies.

    Originally posted by AnyOtherName View Post
    There are several reasons it's likely to drag on:

    First and foremost, WME, UTA, and especially CAA answer to private equity investors, who didn't put hundreds of millions of dollars into these companies so they could be tenpercenteries. To accede to the Guild's demands would mean the P.E.s losing out on most/all future profits (which they'd hoped to be in the billions), so they'll fight tooth and nail to prevent it, maybe even going so far as to risk the agencies' futures.

    Secondly, the WGA is engaged in a very aggressive, increasingly bitter lawsuit with the Big Four. The B4 probably aren't going to sign the Code of Conduct without also settling the lawsuit (for which I suspect the Guild would demand ~8-figure payouts), so their acquiescence would be costly. It'll probably be a year or so before either side has a clear picture of who's likely to win the suit, which is where the "year+" assumption comes from.

    Third, every agency not called Verve is diversified, so they have plenty of revenue streams to see them through for awhile. At some point, yeah, they'll get tired of paying for floors full of agents with nothing to do-- but as soon as agents start getting laid off, this will come to a very quick conclusion, so they'll avoid that for as long as possible.

    Fourth, the second-tiers are all in different positions: Abrams barely reps MP lit (and their TV writers are mostly playwrights), so they don't have a lot to lose from holding out. Gersh is totally dependent on the B4 for packaging, and they don't want to be iced out by Ari Emanuel. APA currently chairs the ATA, so they're really not in a position to fold. Paradigm is a funny one-- they, too, are dependent on the B4 for packaging, but they're not quite as pathetic as Gersh-- so they're my personal pick in the Next to Sign pool.

    Final note: the agencies that everyone seems to forget in these discussions are the smaller TV agencies: Kaplan-Stahler and Rothman-Brecher. I have no idea what those guys haven't folded yet. Anyone got the scoop?

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    • #17
      Re: Is this a "soft pass"?

      although i could see the stalemate (such that it is -- WGA writers seem to be getting staffed for this season's shows through the submission system and social media referrals so the work generally continues) stretching through the summer, i don't see how the non-Big 4 ATA agencies can really afford to sit out through the next development cycle.

      pilot season starts in the fall. if you're a Gersh or Paradigm (or even UTA), can you seriously carry all the salaries of all the lit agents who are currently sitting on their hands if they've been fired by their WGA clients? WME and CAA apparently can because they still have mega-packaging bucks to tide them over. but how long will the mid-tier agencies REALLY keep taking the bullet just so the Big 4 can cling to those (much larger than yours!) fees and production arms?

      the counter-argument i hear a lot is "yeah, but those agencies are afraid to cross the Big 4 because of the threat that they'll withhold their talent for anything that an agency who signs the CoC puts together." this would seem to be a credible threat except that it would mean that any SAG member or DGA member who is still an ATA client (apparently) won't be submitted to work on any pilots that Verve sells this year, or newly agentless WGA writers happen to sell on their own. how, as a fiduciary for your actor and director clients, do you even have that conversation? "sure, I know you would love to go out for all these pilots that are casting and hiring this season but we have to really send a message to the writers and any of these breakaway agencies. you understand our position, right?"

      even if the mid-tier agencies are willing to die on the packaging fees hill for the Big 4 (dumb, imo, but it's a free country i guess), how are their actor and director clients going to feel about watching them set themselves on fire at the expense of generating roles and gigs on non-packaged shows?

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      • #18
        Re: Is this a "soft pass"?

        Originally posted by JoeBanks View Post
        although i could see the stalemate (such that it is -- WGA writers seem to be getting staffed for this season's shows through the submission system and social media referrals so the work generally continues) stretching through the summer, i don't see how the non-Big 4 ATA agencies can really afford to sit out through the next development cycle.

        pilot season starts in the fall. if you're a Gersh or Paradigm (or even UTA), can you seriously carry all the salaries of all the lit agents who are currently sitting on their hands if they've been fired by their WGA clients? WME and CAA apparently can because they still have mega-packaging bucks to tide them over. but how long will the mid-tier agencies REALLY keep taking the bullet just so the Big 4 can cling to those (much larger than yours!) fees and production arms?

        the counter-argument i hear a lot is "yeah, but those agencies are afraid to cross the Big 4 because of the threat that they'll withhold their talent for anything that an agency who signs the CoC puts together." this would seem to be a credible threat except that it would mean that any SAG member or DGA member who is still an ATA client (apparently) won't be submitted to work on any pilots that Verve sells this year, or newly agentless WGA writers happen to sell on their own. how, as a fiduciary for your actor and director clients, do you even have that conversation? "sure, I know you would love to go out for all these pilots that are casting and hiring this season but we have to really send a message to the writers and any of these breakaway agencies. you understand our position, right?"

        even if the mid-tier agencies are willing to die on the packaging fees hill for the Big 4 (dumb, imo, but it's a free country i guess), how are their actor and director clients going to feel about watching them set themselves on fire at the expense of generating roles and gigs on non-packaged shows?
        Mike Ovitz built CAA in large part by leveraging his client list: he'd tell studios they couldn't have access to any of his clients unless they'd agree to pay X Movie Star $20m for a gig. You'd think that would be an empty threat because other clients would object to being used as bargaining chits for the benefit of X Movie Star-- yet it worked again and again.

        I do think you're partly right, JoeBanks-- B4 clients will object if they're frozen out of major Verve-repped projects (for instance) by their own agencies... so the B4 will try to make sure Verve-repped projects never become "real" while also trying to poach Verve's major clients, non-partner agents, etc. They have a few moves here, though perhaps not as many as they think.

        For the record, I don't think any of that will come to pass-- I don't think the B4 can or will force Verve (or Gersh or Paradigm) out of business. But if they wanted to wage a scorched earth campaign against the second-tiers, things could get ugly, and it's that threat of ugliness that's keeping the little guys in line.

        And I think you are absolutely right that it would be suicide for Gersh, Paradigm, and even ICM to spend the fall in wait-and-see mode. I don't think that will happen. I think by August the Code will have one or two new signatories at a minimum.

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        • #19
          Re: Is this a "soft pass"?

          Originally posted by Cokeyskunk View Post
          Actually (and ironically), he responded today and told me to check in with him again when the agents are back to work. He was responding to my "thank you anyway" email response. I was as gracious and told him I would keep looking, even though I didn't like my chances until this problem is resolved.

          So, at this point, I have to believe his remarks were genuine.
          there you go. but don't stop searching now. still work toward getting repped, unless there's some reason you really want this rep.
          "Arguing that you don't care about the right to privacy b/c you have nothing to hide is no different than saying you don't care about free speech because you have nothing to say." -- Edward Snowden

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          • #20
            Re: Is this a "soft pass"?

            Originally posted by finalact4 View Post
            there you go. but don't stop searching now. still work toward getting repped, unless there's some reason you really want this rep.

            But aren't ALL the reps going to say the same thing until this crap is resolved? It appears that NO one is taking on new writers right now. I try to do something every weekday to try to find a manager, but now I feel like I'm just spinning my wheels.

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