Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

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  • Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

    Firth, Bale, Portman, Leo, Social Network, Fincher.

    I don't see any of the above being denied. Why even watch (neither of the hosts are comics)?
    "I ask every producer I meet if they need TV specs they say yeah. They all want a 40 inch display that's 1080p and 120Hz. So, I quit my job at the West Hollywood Best Buy."
    - Screenwriting Friend

  • #2
    Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

    .
    "I ask every producer I meet if they need TV specs they say yeah. They all want a 40 inch display that's 1080p and 120Hz. So, I quit my job at the West Hollywood Best Buy."
    - Screenwriting Friend

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

      Yup. The Best Actress category seemed to be the most difficult to predict before BLACK SWAN came out. Benning got alot of ink for THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT and this rematch with Swank (CONVICTION). Berry and Williams were also mentioned for their roles. But Portman is all they talk about now. And the GG ain't hurtin her chances.
      "There is no greater agony than bearing an untold story inside you."
      -Maya Angelou

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      • #4
        Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

        Originally posted by AJ_FIN
        Predictable? No. Nolan/Inception is the best bet for Best film/director/screenplay. Hathaway might have a chance against Portman, too.
        Really? Because from what I've seen they haven't pushed Inception for any of these awards. Maybe screenplay, but if he wins then it's a joke.
        Introduce a little anarchy.

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        • #5
          Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

          Well Aronosky (sp) then?
          "There is no greater agony than bearing an untold story inside you."
          -Maya Angelou

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

            Originally posted by AJ_FIN
            Predictable? No. Nolan/Inception is the best bet for Best film/director/screenplay. Hathaway might have a chance against Portman, too.
            Hathaway does have a chance. She just won't win.

            I'll give u Nolan vs Fincher but that's all
            "I ask every producer I meet if they need TV specs they say yeah. They all want a 40 inch display that's 1080p and 120Hz. So, I quit my job at the West Hollywood Best Buy."
            - Screenwriting Friend

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

              I think Winter's Bone was the best of 2010. But that's just me. The Social Network was good. Inception was good. But Winter's bone just stayed with me longer.
              "All of us trying to be the camera behind the camera behind the camera. The last story in line. The Truth" Chuck Palahniuk - Haunted

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              • #8
                Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

                Originally posted by Kermet Key View Post
                I think Winter's Bone was the best of 2010. But that's just me. The Social Network was good. Inception was good. But Winter's bone just stayed with me longer.
                same for me. but often the winners are not my personal picks.

                however, i can make a 100% prediction on all categories... every winner will be a caucasian.

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                • #9
                  Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

                  Originally posted by roscoegino View Post
                  Firth, Bale, Portman, Leo, Social Network, Fincher.

                  I don't see any of the above being denied. Why even watch (neither of the hosts are comics)?
                  Ah, Leo, for what?
                  It's the eye of the Tiger, it's the thrill of the fight

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                  • #10
                    Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

                    Originally posted by Jules View Post
                    Ah, Leo, for what?
                    Melissa Leo.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

                      Randy Couture for best actor. That speech he gave about his cauliflower ear was brilliant.
                      Chicks Who Script podcast

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                      • #12
                        Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

                        Keep in mind that, once the Oscar nominations come out, the narrative often ends up changing for sentimental or political reasons.

                        Think about all the Best Picture awards BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN racked up before the Oscars and the same for Mickey Rourke's performance in THE WRESTLER.

                        THE SOCIAL NETWORK is undeniably the critic's choice, but it's also a movie that easily courts controversy, and isn't exactly an up-with-people sort of film.

                        Will the narrative turn against Bale given his famous temper tantrum? If the Academy does the obnoxious thing of nominating Halilee Steinfeld or Julianne Moore for Best Supporting Actress (in a Lead Role), will Leo still be the obvious choice?

                        Portman is the only one where I think you can safely say, before seeing the nominations, that she's a lock. The rest are just most likely to succeed.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

                          Originally posted by AJ_FIN
                          Predictable? No. Nolan/Inception is the best bet for Best film/director/screenplay. Hathaway might have a chance against Portman, too.
                          No chance at all. Toy Story 3 has a better shot at winning (even though it won't), and not because it's clearly a better film. It's all politics.

                          For me, the most predictable year was 2004, when I guessed every single category correct, even the ones I knew nothing about.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

                            Anyone who things Nolan would (undeservingly) taking director of screenwriting -- let alone having INCEPTION win picture -- is an idiot who clearly hasn't been paying attention to this awards season.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Most Predictable Oscar Ever?

                              Originally posted by TheKeenGuy View Post
                              Keep in mind that, once the Oscar nominations come out, the narrative often ends up changing for sentimental or political reasons.

                              Think about all the Best Picture awards BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN racked up before the Oscars and the same for Mickey Rourke's performance in THE WRESTLER.

                              THE SOCIAL NETWORK is undeniably the critic's choice, but it's also a movie that easily courts controversy, and isn't exactly an up-with-people sort of film.

                              Will the narrative turn against Bale given his famous temper tantrum? If the Academy does the obnoxious thing of nominating Halilee Steinfeld or Julianne Moore for Best Supporting Actress (in a Lead Role), will Leo still be the obvious choice?

                              Portman is the only one where I think you can safely say, before seeing the nominations, that she's a lock. The rest are just most likely to succeed.
                              Hey, I like surprises like anyone else. But I'd be baffled if Leo and Bale lost. Their performances are head and shoulders above the pack. Couldn't say the same for Rourke vs. Penn or BROKEBACK vs CRASH.
                              "I ask every producer I meet if they need TV specs they say yeah. They all want a 40 inch display that's 1080p and 120Hz. So, I quit my job at the West Hollywood Best Buy."
                              - Screenwriting Friend

                              Comment

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