How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

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  • How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...er-screenplay/

  • #2
    Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

    Just finished the article; it's quite an interesting read. The biggest research highlight for me was how notoriously subjective comedies are -- representing 6 of the 10 lowest-scoring genres on the site. Almost feels like you're stepping into a minefield every time you start one.

    Awesome that FiveThirtyEight did this analysis.
    "I love being a writer. What I can't stand is the paperwork.-- Peter De Vries

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    • #3
      Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

      Thanks for posting this, Franklin. And thanks to the guy who did the analysis. It's helpful and thought-provoking information. I guess I'll set my personal autobiographical epic scifi comedy screenplay aside for now.
      "The Hollywood film business is a cruel and shallow money trench, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free, and good men die like dogs. There's also a negative side." Hunter S Thompson

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      • #4
        Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

        One thing that I take from this article is that the scripts that probably required the most research seem to rank higher on the list: war dramas, period pieces, political thrillers. Even Film Noir and Gangster movies require an education in the genre to pull off.

        I think that says a lot. The amount of prep work or general studying of film styles helps tremendously when it comes to your first script. The personal autobiography scores lower partially because of the attitude of "this is my story, and I know best how to write it."

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        • #5
          Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

          One thing data shows is that the BL is making a whole LOT of money. Congrats!

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          • #6
            Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

            This writeup hits a nerve for me. The piece very strongly suggests that "new" writers are crappy writers, and if you want to find crappy stories, look on the Blacklist. If you want to find good stories, go to writers who've sold stories already. The Blacklist isn't full of crappy scripts; it harbors a treasure trove of potential hits.
            A. Data cannot help you write a better screenplay. This data can only guide you to writing the type of screenplay that everyone else is writing.

            B. The "Commercial viability" category for coverage does a huge disservice to the Holllywood industry. It actively discourages risk, and encourages copycat sales. A script is pegged as viable or unviable based on a reader whose talents (we hope) are strongly skewed towards character, dialog, and plot. Yet Hollywood asks them to also be expert marketers.

            You can plainly see this in the data itself -- the two "safe" categories of commercial viability are family films and the latest trending genre. A year ago it would have been vampires/zombies, a year from now, "erotic dramas" will be out, and something else will be in. Family dramas will probably always be there -- they're relatively cheap, and thus easier to turn a profit, and therefore "commercially viable".

            C. Interesting that the "derivative" category includes everything based on stories handed down through time -- myths, history, and fantasy (which has strong foundations in both history and myth). I think that deserves further exploration. Is it because of the scripts, or because we've heard those stories repeatedly over the course of millennia?

            D. Maybe "Derivative" shouldn't be a negative mark in the evaluations. We have seen over and over again this year adaptations getting a greenlight. Honestly, can you get more derivative than a movie based on a book, comic, TV show, or previous movie?

            Everyone wants to find a 10. What they should do is look at the 7s and 8s and turn them into 10s -- that's the real potential of the Blacklist: to find the stories that will become the 10s. But that's hard work. That's nurturing a story and cultivating future talent. Sometimes good stories fall into your lap, but good stories are also made if someone takes the time to make them. Success is less a formula and more a strategy.

            It's hard to critique, yet not sound like another writer screaming "not fair!" from somewhere outside the industry. These are the rules of the game, and I'm playing by 'em, with my own growing list of small successes. I just believe the business model that has evolved in Hollywood is not sustainable for long-term success of the industry.

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            • #7
              Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

              Originally posted by MoviePen View Post
              This writeup hits a nerve for me. The piece very strongly suggests that "new" writers are crappy writers, and if you want to find crappy stories, look on the Blacklist. If you want to find good stories, go to writers who've sold stories already. The Blacklist isn't full of crappy scripts; it harbors a treasure trove of potential hits.
              Really? You're taking issue with the idea that new, unproduced writers are being singled out as not being as good as writers who have actually gone through the process of selling something? Amateurs vs. Professionals?

              I think this starts to sound like the common thought of "all my friends tell me my script is great, and the last Transformers movie was awful, so beginning screenwriters are better than the people getting paid to do this job."

              Granted, I'm sure there are many wonderful scripts on the Blacklist, but please don't continue the myth of writer who strikes gold with their very first script. It's like promoting the fantasy of winning the Lottery.

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              • #8
                Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

                Originally posted by MoviePen View Post
                This writeup hits a nerve for me. The piece very strongly suggests that "new" writers are crappy writers, and if you want to find crappy stories, look on the Blacklist.
                I read it much differently.

                The data suggests (proves) that first time writers' scripts suffer from very similar weaknesses, which are common enough throughout a large sample that they are an obvious developmental step that almost everyone needs to overcome.

                The key word is First Time. I would offer that the Black List is not a place for first scripts, outside of the comparatively inexpensive feedback one can get there.

                Anyone looking for material on the BL wouldn't likely be exposed to those scripts anyway.



                Edited to add: There is also a possibility that 538's use of the term 'first time' is just a euphemism for amateurs (I don't think they would have any idea if it was someone's 1st, 3rd or 8th script).

                Still, I would bet that the writers of the scripts with the highest scores have been at this for a while.

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                • #9
                  Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

                  Originally posted by UnequalProductions View Post
                  Really? You're taking issue with the idea that new, unproduced writers are being singled out as not being as good as writers who have actually gone through the process of selling something? Amateurs vs. Professionals?

                  I think this starts to sound like the common thought of "all my friends tell me my script is great, and the last Transformers movie was awful, so beginning screenwriters are better than the people getting paid to do this job."

                  Granted, I'm sure there are many wonderful scripts on the Blacklist, but please don't continue the myth of writer who strikes gold with their very first script. It's like promoting the fantasy of winning the Lottery.
                  No, no, not at all. Most first scripts that get put out there are craptastic. But "new" doesn't equal "amateur". There are plenty of "amateurs" (by definition, someone who hasn't sold a script) who have scripts on the Blacklist, and which have potential.

                  I don't have any skin in the BL game at the moment (my skin is busy with projects made through personal connections). But you're right - it does start to sound like sour grapes. In fact, any conversation about how hard it is for amateur (not new) writers to sell a script starts to sound like sour grapes. Writers are always complaining about something: free work, disrespect, bad notes... breaking in is just another thing we complain about, right?

                  You said it yourself: there are many wonderful scripts on the Blacklist. Plenty of amateurs should be turning into professionals with the help of the BL. But this article bills it as a service where writers get their scripts analyzed -- not a place where filmmakers can find potential scripts. ("The Black List offers aspiring screenwriters the chance to have their work evaluated by professional script-readers who work within the industry.") I think that's a disservice to the BL and to those writers on the List.

                  "The Blacklist offers filmmakers the chance to develop the next surprise hit movie."

                  Why not?

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                  • #10
                    Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

                    I would also add that I don't think getting a '10' should be anyone's goal.

                    A cumulative score of 7.5+ with at least 5 reviews would point towards commercial viability, I think.

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                    • #11
                      Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

                      Originally posted by kintnerboy View Post
                      I read it much differently.

                      The data suggests (proves) that first time writers' scripts suffer from very similar weaknesses, which are common enough throughout a large sample that they are an obvious developmental step that almost everyone needs to overcome.

                      The key word is First Time. I would offer that the Black List is not a place for first scripts, outside of the comparatively inexpensive feedback one can get there.

                      Anyone looking for material on the BL wouldn't likely be exposed to those scripts anyway.

                      Edited to add: There is also a possibility that 538's use of the term 'first time' is just a euphemism for amateurs (I don't think they would have any idea if it was someone's 1st, 3rd or 8th script).

                      Still, I would bet that the writers of the scripts with the highest scores have been at this for a while.
                      It may be that equating "first-time" to "amateur" is what piqued me. I agree that the data probably didn't include the distinction between "first" and "eighth." So what the data really shows is where all failing scripts fail, not first scripts. Which is largely plot, character, and dialog. Writers should really have this figured out by script two or three.

                      The most useful part of the data is the genre-by-genre eval. That's where the data can actually help a new writer be a better writer. Legal dramas tend to be great on plot, but overwhelmingly weak on dialog -- that's useful to a lawyer penning a script for the first time. I can have confidence in my logic, but I need to really buckle down on the dialog. Same with superhero movies lacking character development.

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                      • #12
                        Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

                        Originally posted by kintnerboy View Post
                        I would also add that I don't think getting a '10' should be anyone's goal.

                        A cumulative score of 7.5+ with at least 5 reviews would point towards commercial viability, I think.
                        We all strive for a perfect 10 in so many aspects of life -- everyone wants to write the perfect script. I don't think you can avoid that.

                        But I agree; opportunities are rife at the 7s and 8s. (The thought of having to pay nearly $400 for five reviews a bit ghastly, though.)

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                        • #13
                          Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

                          Originally posted by MoviePen View Post
                          The thought of having to pay nearly $400 for five reviews a bit ghastly, though.
                          You shouldn't have to pay for more than 2, unless you do a major rewrite and want to impact your score immediately.

                          An 8** will get you 2 free reviews (or it used to) and you should be attracting pro downloads at that point, who may, at least 15% of the time, give you another rating.




                          ** If you didn't get at least a 7 on your initial paid reviews, perhaps do a re-write or move on to the next project.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

                            Originally posted by UpandComing View Post
                            Just finished the article; it's quite an interesting read. The biggest research highlight for me was how notoriously subjective comedies are -- representing 6 of the 10 lowest-scoring genres on the site. Almost feels like you're stepping into a minefield every time you start one.
                            As somebody who has read a metric f-ton of amateur comedies, I'm going to suggest two other factors that I think are relevant here.

                            The first, and by far most important, is that being funny is its own thing, and that it's hard. Yeah, yeah, it's all hard. But what I see time and time again are people who write comedies without jokes. They think having vaguely absurd characters, sarcastic lines, or winking at the audience is enough to make something a comedy, and it isn't.

                            No amateur writes an action script without action, or a thriller without at least attempted thrills. But people actually do write lots and lots of comedies without jokes. Or they write comedies with no attempt to create fundamentally comedic situations, just one-liner. And hey, a one-liner is great. But it's not even close to being a replacement for comedic set-pieces. Judging from what I've read, and assuming the writers in each genre are equally talented, I have to say that I think comedy is just harder.

                            The second reason is that you have to read a comedy more slowly to get the jokes. In my experience, you can blaze through a thriller and fundamentally "get it." But you miss a lot of jokes if you do that with a comedy. The economics of reading for a contest or something like the black list (caveat: I am not a black list reader. I have a sense of how much they pay, however) are such that there is at least subconscious pressure to read quickly.

                            (That is to say, when you're reading for a contest and getting $25 a script, you've got to plow through a bunch, and you're really aware of that hourly rate. When you're reading for a prod-co, you're usually being paid $65 or so, and the need to write a synopsis requires you to read more closely anyway.)

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                            • #15
                              Re: How Data Can Help You Write a Better Screenplay

                              Originally posted by Ronaldinho View Post
                              As somebody who has read a metric f-ton of amateur comedies, I'm going to suggest two other factors that I think are relevant here.

                              The first, and by far most important, is that being funny is its own thing, and that it's hard. Yeah, yeah, it's all hard. But what I see time and time again are people who write comedies without jokes. They think having vaguely absurd characters, sarcastic lines, or winking at the audience is enough to make something a comedy, and it isn't.

                              No amateur writes an action script without action, or a thriller without at least attempted thrills. But people actually do write lots and lots of comedies without jokes. Or they write comedies with no attempt to create fundamentally comedic situations, just one-liner. And hey, a one-liner is great. But it's not even close to being a replacement for comedic set-pieces. Judging from what I've read, and assuming the writers in each genre are equally talented, I have to say that I think comedy is just harder.

                              The second reason is that you have to read a comedy more slowly to get the jokes. In my experience, you can blaze through a thriller and fundamentally "get it." But you miss a lot of jokes if you do that with a comedy. The economics of reading for a contest or something like the black list (caveat: I am not a black list reader. I have a sense of how much they pay, however) are such that there is at least subconscious pressure to read quickly.

                              (That is to say, when you're reading for a contest and getting $25 a script, you've got to plow through a bunch, and you're really aware of that hourly rate. When you're reading for a prod-co, you're usually being paid $65 or so, and the need to write a synopsis requires you to read more closely anyway.)
                              These reasons both make sense. Especially agree with the first one. I'm reminded of how hard comedy is every time I go to the theater and see something that's supposed to be hilarious that barely elicits a few chuckles. When I think about the truly funny movies of the last few years, only Judd Apatow and his crew (Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, Jason Segel) are really bringing it as writers and directors on a regular basis.
                              "I love being a writer. What I can't stand is the paperwork.-- Peter De Vries

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