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Old 07-27-2010, 09:15 AM   #1
The Calculator
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Default Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

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Last edited by The Calculator : 03-15-2011 at 09:36 PM.
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Old 07-27-2010, 09:26 AM   #2
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

bzzzzt!

Sorry, your answer is incorrect.

Thanks for playing.

You may return to your seat.
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Old 07-27-2010, 09:30 AM   #3
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

That font is so big!
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Old 07-27-2010, 10:06 AM   #4
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

You know, it just occurred to me that THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH (1952) should have been called TENTPOLE: THE MOVIE.

What a massive fvcking opportunity they missed.

god damn them. God damn them all to hell.
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Old 07-27-2010, 01:58 PM   #5
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

2009 - record year for box office *and* for ticket sales, starting in *January* of that year and continuing throughout.

2010 - started slow, and though we will not have a record for ticket sales, we will have a very good year in box office (up 4.3% over last year's record).

The studio system is strong...

Indies are dying or dead - they closed the doors at Miramax, and most of the indie distribs that were strong ten years ago are out of business... because people seem less interested in seeing those films right now.

As for the tentpole vs. tentpole thing - just look at this weekend. SALT was pegged to make $30m, with INCEPTION back at #1 with $40m... except *both films* made more than what was expected. The funny thing about supply and demand is that when demand is great, if one big film sells out the other big films benefit... as do the cinema's concession stands.

And a $200m movie doesn't just make $200m... Let's look at a *flop* - PRINCE OF PERSIA, budgeted at $200m. It has made $326,923,435 so far in cinemas. That is not a hit at all. CLASH OF THE TITANS remake - made about half a billion... a minor hit. ALICE IN WONDERLAND - over a billion on a budget of... $200m.

So a $200m tentpole *flop* can make over $326m, and a *hit* can make over a billion...

You do the math.

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Old 07-27-2010, 03:05 PM   #6
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

This has been going on *long* before 2009 - would you like me to find and post an article from a decade ago about the studio's new plan to do all tentpoles all the time? That would be pretty easy...

But since 2009 was a record year for ticket sales, I'll just go with your theory - since it proves my point better than the facts do.

And why would you pull out ALICE? That makes no sense from a logic point of view, only makes sense from an "I'll do anything to prove my point" point of view.

And, um, great dodge on PRINCE OF PERSIA - which completely proves that a flop tentpole still makes a bunch of money.

But this whole argument is just silly - if the ticket buying public wants to see big tentpoles (which is why even the flops seem to be making money), and the studios are interested in buying big tentpole scripts (so that they can continue to make money), we need to write what the customers are buying to make a sale. If the studios began making nudist westerns tomorrow, we would need to write nudist westerns if we wanted to sell a script to the studios. A shoe manufacturer who decides to only make size 8 men's shoes is going to go out of business if the most popular shoe size is 11 and size 11 outsells all of the rest. You have a better chance of selling shoes if you make size 11 only... and the best chance if you make mostly size 11, with some other lesser-demand sizes. The marketplace makes the decisions - we do not. Arguing about the marketplace or how the marketplace is making a wrong decision is pointless - the marketplace is outside of our control. We create products that service the marketplace, and no matter how much we think that a size 8 shoe is better, if the majority of people are buying size 11, we need to make size 11. You can tilt windmills - but in the end it doesn't matter, it's all about slaying dragons.

Facts say - 2009 was record year for ticket sales, 2010 is ahead of 2009 in box office.

They way to get people away from their big screen TVs and NetFlix - event films that must be seen on a big screen. And so far, that is working.

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Old 07-27-2010, 03:11 PM   #7
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

But don't you guys understand? It's all broken! I'm right! It'll fail! You'll see!
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Old 07-27-2010, 03:14 PM   #8
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

How much of those studio tentpoles are original screenplays as opposed to intellectual properties?

As was pointed out in another thread, the top three movies this week were original screenplays (Inception, Salt, Despicable Me). Is this a new trend or just an anomaly?
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Old 07-27-2010, 04:12 PM   #9
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

Has Prince of Persia really made a lot of money?

With a production-only budget (before P&A) of $200 million, break-even is $400 million (again, w/o P&A). I wonder how much the studios will have to make in DVD etc. before they see a profit?

I have no idea, btw, I got a C in Art Murphy's grad film biz seminar way back when.
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Old 07-27-2010, 04:49 PM   #10
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Default Re: Current Studio Model Will Fall Away

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Calculator View Post
jcgary - Yes, it's hard sometimes being ahead of the curve. But allow me to tuck you in, my friend, way back there in the middle of the pack -

Bill - Dodging PRINCE OF PERSIA? Not really. Believe domestically it did sh*t business. But then, didn't you sorta kinda gloss right over THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE?

What I'd like you to address is the glut... Going from twenty big budget movies a year to eighty. You say big whoop. I don't. At least a quarter of these will fall through the cracks, probably more. That's a whole lotta failure going on with big big budgets. PERSIA is probably a bad example because it really didn't open against anything substantial (if memory serves).

When that manufacturing line starts to really kick them out at two per week, guess what? There's no second or third weekend to count on, as before. Lots of these will get lost in the shuffle and lose lots of money. Which brings forth my point again that this model is flawed and will not be the money tree they all thought it would be.
Where are you getting "eighty big budget movies a year".
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