Effect of the Coronavirus

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  • #46
    Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

    I've seen enough behavior in stores the last couple of days to finally get the solar panels for our cabin in the woods. This ain't the Big One but I'm not begrudging anyone prepping for the next one anymore. Whatever that means to you, go for it. Be it go-bag or home defense.

    Like in every movie, it will be the crazy paranoids we mocked that were ahead of the curve. It's a low probability scenario, but this is nuts and it's not even all that Black Swan-y of an event. (Though part of the current government's response has nudged it in that direction, it seems)

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    • #47
      Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

      Regardless of what great heights various civilizations may sometimes reach, they fall far more quickly than they rise. We evolve, then devolve. That seems to be the cycle of human behavior on this planet. I'm going planet-hopping for a better world in which to live. Vetted Canadians are welcome to come along.
      "Go to the edge of the cliff and jump off. Build your wings on the way down.- - Ray Bradbury

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      • #48
        Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

        Originally posted by TigerFang View Post
        The COVID-19 virus lives about nine hours on a surface, and lives longest on metals, I'm told.
        This was correct at the time it was written not so long ago, but is incorrect information now.
        "Go to the edge of the cliff and jump off. Build your wings on the way down.- - Ray Bradbury

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        • #49
          Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

          If you look at the behavior in stores, people have no regard for each other. Sure, some people are still nice. But, there are a lot of cutting in line, fights, and snatching up everything in sight at the expense of everyone else. It's like the Popeye sandwich fights times 100. It's distressing to see society devolve that quickly. You can't even ignore it anymore since almost every sector of society is disrupted.


          Also, there's a little confusion about how it's transmitted. They say wipe everything down, but then not get close to people, so that means it's also airborne? And if the infected person is breathing out those particles, wouldn't it be in the air for people to walk right into or be next to. I looked at the space between people and they were closer than 6 feet. People do not realize how fair 6 feet is.

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          • #50
            Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

            "A person is smart; people are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it." Agent K, MiB.

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            • #51
              Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

              Good time to get some writing done.

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              • #52
                Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                Seen on Twitter a few minutes ago: A man who lives in a town of 105,000 where there are five gun shops/stores “tweeted” that there are 1-2 hour waits and lines out the doors of those gun dealers.

                That is a wholly incorrect mindset for any person or groups of persons to have when social calm is imperative.

                Worse still is the thought that hate groups we already know to exist taking this opportunity to create outbreaks of chaos to sow their brand of violence.

                Then there’s the incident with the NBA player diagnosed with COVID-19 (true name “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2”) who was “joking” with reporters when he touched all the microphones to contaminate them.

                The last thing the world needs is for those who contract the virus to become angry about and spread it intentionally, much like the case of Johnson Aziga and the AIDS virus. This leads one to draw a parallel between the actions of Aziga and the Republican senators who collectively prevented legislation to mitigate the spread of the virus.

                If things like all of the above keep up at the current pace, we’ll all be singing Pink Floyd’s “Wish You Were Here” in honor of those we lose to this pandemic.
                "Go to the edge of the cliff and jump off. Build your wings on the way down.- - Ray Bradbury

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                • #53
                  Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                  Originally posted by lostfootage View Post
                  Good time to get some writing done.
                  Absolutely a good opportunity to get more writing done.
                  "Go to the edge of the cliff and jump off. Build your wings on the way down.- - Ray Bradbury

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                  • #54
                    Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                    Among my family/friends/network are a number of doctors. One truth that has become alarmingly clear to me during the past week, is that these people have a much different and I believe, more accurate, take on the gravity of our situation than an intentionally deceptive White House and even the MSM. When I asked them about the best way to understand the reality of our current dilemma they referred me to these informal notes of a an MD attending this epidemiology/immunology panel at the UC San Francisco four days ago. While some of this may already known to the public, what seems most notable is that the tone and general assessment of these scientists is considerably more dire than what's being served up by the MSM -- though the TImes does seem to be getting better. I know that this post may seem excessively serious on an entertainment website, but if it saves one life, it would be justified.

                    One other note: there is mention of a drug called remdesivir, still undergoing clinical trials, which was used to save the life of a Covid-19 patient on the verge of death, a little over two weeks ago at the medical center at UC Davis, CA. If you know or hear of anyone at a similar point, may be relevant as a final option.


                    Dr. Jordan Shlain, M.D.
                    Dr. Jordan Shlain, M.D.Follow

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                    University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19

                    March 10, 2020

                    Panelists
                    Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford). Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
                    Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics
                    Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist.
                    Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance. Epidemiologist.
                    Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc
                    What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.

                    Top takeaways
                    At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.

                    Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.

                    How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
                    We are moving from containment to care.
                    We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.

                    40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.

                    [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]

                    The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.

                    This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.

                    The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]

                    Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did

                    I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year.

                    What should we do now? What are you doing for your family?
                    Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).

                    How long does the virus last?
                    On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this
                    The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.

                    Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places.

                    We have cancelled business travel.

                    Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face.

                    Stockpile your critical prescription medications. Many pharma supply chains run through China. Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing.

                    Pneumonia shot might be helpful. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.

                    Get a flu shot next fall. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.

                    We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”. CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines.

                    We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes. Then are not letting them out of the house. The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in.

                    Three routes of infection
                    Hand to mouth / face
                    Aerosol transmission
                    Fecal oral route

                    What if someone is sick?
                    If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate. There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home. Most cases are mild. But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on.

                    If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER.
                    There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19. The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease. ie to prevent sepsis.

                    If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China. Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll. Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19. If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines. [More I found online.]

                    Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults?
                    Your immune system declines past age 50
                    Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness. These conditions are higher in older adults.
                    Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults.

                    What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19?
                    Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful. Here’s why.

                    Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test. No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”.
                    A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA. However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives.
                    The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits.
                    While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing.
                    The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day. For the nation.
                    Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.” And certification. ie it won’t happen soon.
                    UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits. But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day. And are not clinically certified.
                    Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger.

                    How well is society preparing for the impact?
                    Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak. UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot. They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus. They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility.

                    If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities. But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected.
                    School closures are one the biggest societal impacts. We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects. If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services.

                    Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis. They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months. Other solutions will have to be found.

                    What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months?
                    Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed.
                    Kids home due to school closures

                    [Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office. When he returned we asked what the call covered.] The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action. The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions. ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people.

                    Where do you find reliable news?
                    The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site. Which posts daily updates. The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email. [I tried and the page times out due to high demand. After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]

                    The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy.

                    Observations on China
                    Unlike during SARS, China’s scientists are publishing openly and accurately on COVID-19.
                    While China’s early reports on incidence were clearly low, that seems to trace to their data management systems being overwhelmed, not to any bad intent.
                    Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand. Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks. Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots.
                    Early on no one had info on COVID-19. So China reacted in a way unique modern history, except in wartime.
                    Every few years there seems another: SARS, Ebola, MERS, H1N1, COVID-19. Growing strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria. Are we in the twilight of a century of medicine’s great triumph over infectious disease?
                    "We’ve been in a back and forth battle against viruses for a million years."
                    But it would sure help if every country would shut down their wet markets.
                    As with many things, the worst impact of COVID-19 will likely be in the countries with the least resources, eg Africa. See article on Wired magazine on sequencing of virus from Cambodia.

                    Sent from my iPad
                    Last edited by Done Deal Pro; 03-15-2020, 07:46 AM. Reason: Cleaned up formatting a little

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                    • #55
                      Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                      Will this slow down during the summer? It's pretty devastating. People can't even go out, socialize, or do normal things. I don't know how the economy will hold up. And I am sure some people can't hold out forever financially, especially for those in the service industry that have to deal with people.

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                      • #56
                        Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                        All good gouge from Captain Nemo above. Thank you for that.

                        Now I’m wondering if we as a society might return to the use of animals as beasts of burden and transportation—oxen to pull carts instead of lorries, horses and buggies instead of automobiles, goats for lawn-mowers, et cetera.

                        If so, then I’m glad to have the experience of growing up on a Thoroughbred horse farm. There, I followed the ferrier, or “blacksmith,” on his monthly rounds to trim and shoe over three hundred head of horses on our farm. He mentored me, and I can perform the task well. If we as a nation revert to horses as a major means of transportation, I have job security, for I can hoof it as a ferrier.

                        Once the nation turns again to literal horsepower, I can easily foresee writing about the subject. Whatever literary efforts may come from me after a national return to equine energy, I’ve already chosen a title: They Shoe Horses, Don’t They?
                        "Go to the edge of the cliff and jump off. Build your wings on the way down.- - Ray Bradbury

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                        • #57
                          Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                          Maybe we'd be better off to just shut everything down for 3 weeks, rather than letting this drag on. At least slow down the curve. Don't want to end up like Italy and China.

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                          • #58
                            Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                            Today, the governor of Illinois closes all restaurants and bars. The governor of Ohio also closes all restaurants and bars starting at 9 p.m. They will remain closed until further notice. Takeout and delivery is still okay, though, so the problem of spread of the contagion still exists through food services, but the theory is this will minimize it.
                            "Go to the edge of the cliff and jump off. Build your wings on the way down.- - Ray Bradbury

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                            • #59
                              Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                              I was a little concerned about eating take out food because I wasn't sure about the people preparing the food. Maybe, scientists can clear it up. I am still not too clear about the precautions.


                              Meanwhile, the box office has plunged to the lowest levels in 2 decades. People just are going out less. Who knows how small business restaurants survive.


                              How do you think this affects screenwriting contests, fellowships and screenwriters selling their specs and staffing?

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                              • #60
                                Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                                Originally posted by Friday View Post
                                I was a little concerned about eating take out food because I wasn't sure about the people preparing the food. Maybe, scientists can clear it up. I am still not too clear about the precautions.
                                A lot of people have this fear. What I do is buy fresh vegetables, wash them thoroughly, and cook them in a Crock Pot when I need to be away and cook at the same time. There are a lot of good recipes for Crock Pot cooking. Depending upon what it is you cook, it can be much healthier for you, too, far better than take-out food with all that salt, grease, and butter.

                                Originally posted by Friday View Post
                                Meanwhile, the box office has plunged to the lowest levels in 2 decades. People just are going out less. Who knows how small business restaurants survive.
                                Yes, even I stopped going out to empty theaters early last week. Emma was the last (delicious) movie I viewed in a theater. I suspect you’ll see lots of Mom & Pop restaurants not re-open.

                                Originally posted by Friday View Post
                                How do you think this affects screenwriting contests, fellowships and screenwriters selling their specs and staffing?
                                With electronic submissions, there ought not be any issues with screenwriting contests. As for selling specs and staffing, those are the first-world problems of a screenwriter. First things first: Win the contest or sell the screenplay.

                                In other news: Shots fired at Traders World near Cincinnati, Ohio, today. A fight between two customers developed into a shooting. No indication as to what propmpted the gunslinging.

                                Twitter photo posted today: Lines outside a gun store in Los Angeles.

                                The mindset of people who think they need weapons for this virus event is wrong-headed. Simply treat others the way you wish to be treated. If they’re not of that mindset, then by all means leave the area and free yourself of them. They’ll cause you and everyone else nothing but trouble.

                                Currently, it’s the Ides of March. Word to the wise: Beware the Ides of March.
                                "Go to the edge of the cliff and jump off. Build your wings on the way down.- - Ray Bradbury

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