Effect of the Coronavirus

Collapse

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Effect of the Coronavirus

    Supposedly, the new Bond film has been pushed back 7 months and it's costing them at least 30 millions to do so. I am not sure how this affects the theater business. Are people afraid to go to movie theaters now? I know it's hit the cruise and airline industry hard. People that write in public places, are you staying home now? I noticed that most of the bottled water and sanitizers are picked clean from the shelves. For those that live in Los Angeles, how does that affect going out to eat, shopping and doing everyday things that you never thought twice about? I admit I felt a little paranoid this week after all the news coverage.

  • #2
    Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

    China basically has been shut down for over a month. Italy is next. Iran is apparently even worse than both of them.

    We haven't been testing potential new patients here in the US at scale and the virus has likely been present from overseas travel and contacts since January, and as far as anyone can tell we're still not testing on the scale of a country like South Korea (10k a day, we have barely sent 10k kits out across the whole United States). So even the cases that are popping up in states and cities everywhere now that the 14-day incubation period has passed are likely just the tip of a much bigger iceberg.

    SXSW canceled for the first time ever is the big fat canary in the coal mine. Public spaces everywhere are going to have to be sealed off once the full scope of infection becomes truly apparent

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

      Anyone got a good pandemic script...
      I heard the starting gun


      sigpic

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

        It's a little confusing. Are we to avoid every day things like going shopping, writing in coffee shops, going to the movies, going to eat at a restaurant? The thing that's scary is the community spread...the cases that popped with people who did not travel or knowingly come in contact with people from those 5 countries. I am not too clear on where the cases are in LA and what areas to avoid. The elbow bump is silly because you still breathe in the air by coming close to that person to bump.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

          What we need is Bruce Willis to pull a Twelve Monkeys maneuver and travel backward in Time to the mad scientist who developed this curse to stop it before it started.
          "Go to the edge of the cliff and jump off. Build your wings on the way down.- - Ray Bradbury

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

            20/20 theorized it came from Bats.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

              It's hard not to be alarmed when every night the news devotes half it's broadcast to the corona virus. I switched through 5 channels and they all devoted their half hour to it, with a little car chase and weather sprinkled in.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                Originally posted by Friday View Post
                For those that live in Los Angeles, how does that affect going out to eat, shopping and doing everyday things that you never thought twice about? I admit I felt a little paranoid this week after all the news coverage.
                For whatever little it is worth, we went out for drinks and to dinner last night and the restaurant was packed -- granted it's a great/popular spot, but still. We've also been out running errands for various things. We will go to a museum today as well. Dinner out again tonight.

                Mainly, we just try to be as smart about it as we can. Use elbows when possible to open doors or to push elevator buttons. Wash hands after being out or even while out on occasion. Don't try to touch our faces much while being out and after touching things. It's generally on my mind but can't stop living and doing some things at least.

                It's sad situation which we certainly hope for everyone's sake won't get any worse. Also, hopefully some kind of cure, vaccine or whatever will be found as soon as they can -- though that sounds like a year or so away. But it hasn't gotten to a point where we feel like we have to stay in no matter what. Obviously, there hasn't been an announcement or recommendation like that yet.

                Big events with tons of people all crammed into a tight space -- basketball games, conferences, etc. -- or plane rides/flights would make me a bit nervous. For the rest, use what caution you can as with anything (flu, etc.) like this.
                Last edited by Done Deal Pro; 03-08-2020, 09:10 AM.
                Will
                Done Deal Pro
                www.donedealpro.com

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                  Originally posted by Done Deal Pro View Post
                  Big events with tons of people all crammed into a tight space -- basketball games, conferences, etc. -- or plane rides/flights would make me a bit nervous. For the rest, use what caution you can as with anything (flu, etc.) like this.
                  I agree.

                  Anecdotally, There was a SUPERNATURAL fan convention in Vegas this weekend, and one of the stars threatened to not show up, but was kind of shamed into it by other stars who did. Tickets had been purchased well in advance so the fans were almost certainly going to attend, but these types of conventions have a history of stars/celebrities backing out at the last minute. They did, however, change the photo-op procedure to limit or eliminate physical contact.

                  So even with the threat of contracting a virus that is being fear mongered it didn't seem to affect a popular fan convention. My wife works at the company that puts on the conventions so there is some concern about future conventions.
                  Just my 2 cents, your mileage may vary.

                  -Steve Trautmann
                  3rd & Fairfax: The WGAW Podcast

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                    Originally posted by Done Deal Pro View Post
                    For whatever little it is worth, we went out for drinks and to dinner last night and the restaurant was packed -- granted it's a great/popular spot, but still. We've also been out running errands for various things. We will go to a museum today as well. Dinner out again tonight.

                    Mainly, we just try to be as smart about it as we can. Use elbows when possible to open doors or to push elevator buttons. Wash hands after being out or even while out on occasion. Don't try to touch our faces much while being out and after touching things. It's generally on my mind but can't stop living and doing some things at least.

                    It's sad situation which we certainly hope for everyone's sake won't get any worse. Also, hopefully some kind of cure, vaccine or whatever will be found as soon as they can -- though that sounds like a year or so away. But it hasn't gotten to a point where we feel like we have to stay in no matter what. Obviously, there hasn't been an announcement or recommendation like that yet.

                    Big events with tons of people all crammed into a tight space -- basketball games, conferences, etc. -- or plane rides/flights would make me a bit nervous. For the rest, use what caution you can as with anything (flu, etc.) like this.

                    I hear ya. I was of that mindset up until this week. Before, I could rationalize that it was something that was an overseas problem. The news coverage does seem to have worn me down a bit. I have noticed people react differently now. They are like scrubbing their hands for a minute, making the bathroom wash sink have a longer wait. Before, people would just rinse in two seconds. Italy has quarantined 16 million people, which is like a quarter of their population. I am still confused as to the virus. Some say 14 days quarantine, but other scientists have pointed out 20 days. And then, there's how it's transmitted. If a person is in the room and is breathing out all those particles, how safe is it for people. It's also a perception thing. Just the fear has already gotten studios to move film dates or shut down production or stall production. Airlines will probably take a 113 billion loss. And restaurants in certain areas are now ghost towns.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                      It hasn't quite affected the US box office, yet, but it has taken a toll on the overseas box office as theaters in Japan, France, Italy, South Korea, etc. have all seen steep declines. The perception has really hurt the stock of the movie chains.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                        They said the entertainment industry is expected to take a $5 billion hit due to COVID-19 closures and quarantines.

                        The community spread tells you what everyone should already know... Coronavirus is already here and spreading as we wait for the tests to arrive. The only reason the numbers are low is because there aren't any tests.

                        Someone, somewhere along the way has been in contact with someone who traveled to an infected area.

                        I have a sci-fi epic based on the release of a virus with a high r-naught (RO), or reproductive rate. The flu has an r-naught of 1-1.45, that means on average if a person gets the flu, they typically infect 1 other person. If the R0 is less than one, that virus/disease will burn itself out. Over two and you have an outbreak.

                        Measles (very highly contagious) has an R0 of 12-18, which means each infected person can infect an additional 12-18 people (who are susceptible) and each one of those 18 people can infect an additional 18 (who are susceptible).

                        The susceptible population would be anyone who has never been vaccinated, has ever had the disease before (um, that's all of us), and there is no way to contain it.

                        So with anything over, say, 3 or 4, the numbers become explosive... here's an example:

                        R0 of 18
                        1-->18-->324-->5,832-->104,976-->1,889,568-->34,012,224

                        R0 0f 3
                        1--> 3--> 9--> 27--> 81--> 243--> 729--> 2,187--> 6,561--> 19,683--> 59,049--> 177,147--> 531,441--> 1,594,323--> 4,782,969--> 14,348,907--> 43,046,721--> 129,140,163--> 387,420,489--> 1,162,261,467--> 3,489,784,401

                        And that's 3.4 billion in 20 steps. This is WHY early containment and quarantine is imperative, especially early on. There's no vaccine, and we have a population where no one has had the disease before. Containment is the ONLY way we can control the outbreak at this point.

                        So the fact that we have it here and aren't testing for it means more than likely it's spreading across the US as we wait. We now have 3 cases in Connecticut.

                        Overnight Italy's infection rate exploded. It more than doubled in less than a week from 2,500 on Wednesday to over 5,800 on Saturday.

                        The other curious thing is how does 700 people on a cruise ship get infected in a matter of a couple of weeks? Makes one wonder if it didn't come from a food source originally, or that a number of people had it before they boarded the ship.

                        COVID-19 might not have an R0 of 3, but it's only been 9 weeks and over 109,000 people are infected and 3,800 are dead. That's at a rate of more than 3.5% mortality.

                        The biggest problem right now is that they simply don't know enough about the virus or the disease.
                        "Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break them like an artist,- Pablo Picasso

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                          Well, a huge number of the crew was infected, so I wonder if that was part of the problem. A cruise ship is like a petri dish. All those people trapped in that container. Who knows what the air is like. Or touching any of the surfaces. It's basically shut Italy down. Most of their tourist attractions. A quarter of them are quarantined.



                          You see all these celebrities wearing those masks. Not sure how effective that is. I really enjoy going to the movies every week, but family and friends are kind of freaked out about the thing. They still go out, but skip the really big events with a lot of people.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                            Originally posted by Friday View Post
                            Well, a huge number of the crew was infected, so I wonder if that was part of the problem. A cruise ship is like a petri dish. All those people trapped in that container. Who knows what the air is like. Or touching any of the surfaces. It's basically shut Italy down. Most of their tourist attractions. A quarter of them are quarantined.

                            You see all these celebrities wearing those masks. Not sure how effective that is. I really enjoy going to the movies every week, but family and friends are kind of freaked out about the thing. They still go out, but skip the really big events with a lot of people.
                            That's a good point about the crew, because they could have been infecting each other for weeks on end, which means it's possible that the cruises before that first cruise identified with the Coronavirus would/could have infected additional people on those prior cruises who then went home, where ever that may have been and spread the virus from there.

                            That makes sense.

                            Oil prices dropped 20% today as Saudi Arabia and Russia started a price war to compensate for the huge loss in the travel demand.
                            "Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break them like an artist,- Pablo Picasso

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Effect of the Coronavirus

                              Originally posted by finalact4 View Post
                              That's a good point about the crew, because they could have been infecting each other for weeks on end, which means it's possible that the cruises before that first cruise identified with the Coronavirus would/could have infected additional people on those prior cruises who then went home, where ever that may have been and spread the virus from there.

                              That makes sense.

                              Oil prices dropped 20% today as Saudi Arabia and Russia started a price war to compensate for the huge loss in the travel demand.

                              Being stuck on that ship really put the passengers at risk. It first started out just a few people, but they were trapped there and then eventually it just exploded. It was 19 of the crew that was infected, so that's a lot of people with it that were interacting with passengers. They have to do something about figuring out how to contain it with safety rooms. There are a few hospitals that are equipped with having air vents that do not allow the virus through....and also the crew should have been checked or wear protective gear when handling the food and beverage.


                              The virus has just been devastating economically. Certain countries and industries have already faced a huge body blow. People are afraid of going on a cruise or flying. Schools, amusement parks, popular tourist attractions, theaters and restaurants have essentially been shut down in several countries. I have no idea what the real numbers are in certain totalitarian countries that might not be as honest about the numbers.



                              I don't know if you live in L.A. But, has this changed your habits? Are you still going to continue to go to the movies? I had been looking forward to that Bond movie and also seeing Jane Austen's Emma. I still might go, but it's causing me anxiety. It's not so much the virus itself, but the guilt of endangering loved ones and getting quarantined for 14 days.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X