Contests or Black List?

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  • #31
    Re: Contests or Black List?

    Originally posted by FranklinLeonard View Post
    I would STRONGLY disagree with this assumption. Suffice it to say that our earliest successes are coming from material that is decidedly not commercial in the conventional Hollywood sense of the word.
    This seems contradictory to your previous statements about finding scrrenplays that Hollywood wants to buy - ie: commercial & marketable.

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: Contests or Black List?

      Originally posted by FoxHound View Post
      Switch "hand" with "..." and you've got a solid premise. Ahem.
      Ah, so you've already read Rich's award-winning screenplay...

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: Contests or Black List?

        Originally posted by FranklinLeonard View Post
        It is true that if you get a six or below, it is unlikely that you will get an 8 or better on a second or third paid review. It is, however, possible. The odds are approximately 7:1 against you based on our first month's data.

        I can't figure out the statistical basis for the latter claim, and I frankly doubt one exists. If you're up for explaining how you're coming to that conclusion, I'm happy to confirm or deny.
        So I got a 7 on my first read ("hey, not bad," says I) [https://www.blcklst.com/members/script/4870] but a 5 on my second ("rats!"). So I'm wondering whether it makes sense to buy a 3rd read in hopes of an 8 or pull it off BL, do a rewrite, then resubmit.

        BTW, regardless of the score, the fact that an outsider can get a script read by pros in Hollywood and reach decision-makers if that score is good enough-- that's pretty damn revolutionary.

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: Contests or Black List?

          My experience with the BL--"commercial" trumps vision, voice and uncomfortable/controversial/unconventional subject matter that does not fit the typical Hollywood paradigm.
          http://www.pjmcilvaine.com/

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Contests or Black List?

            I would never want to dissuade people from entering good contests like Nicholl, Austin, Final Draft, etc. Even apart from the status/reality check it provides and the potential upside of how one might perform, the contest deadlines in particular can be great motivation to finish what one is working on.

            But something I really appreciated about The Black List -- besides it being easy and not much more expensive than a contest and a more direct line to industry interests -- was the fact that after I finished a new revision of my script that I was really excited about, I didn't have to wait for the next good contest (Spring?). I just got my Black List review of it after only six days, and it's one that augurs very exciting things.

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: Contests or Black List?

              Originally posted by SundownInRetreat View Post
              This seems contradictory to your previous statements about finding scrrenplays that Hollywood wants to buy - ie: commercial & marketable.
              My statements have been about finding screenplays Hollywood wants to read. There's a big difference.

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: Contests or Black List?

                Originally posted by LFGabel View Post
                If you don't get a 7 or higher on the first paid review, any more paid reviews will probably just reduce your average score. IMO, stop at one review.
                Originally posted by FranklinLeonard View Post
                It is true that if you get a six or below, it is unlikely that you will get an 8 or better on a second or third paid review. It is, however, possible. The odds are approximately 7:1 against you based on our first month's data.

                I can't figure out the statistical basis for the latter claim, and I frankly doubt one exists. If you're up for explaining how you're coming to that conclusion, I'm happy to confirm or deny.
                This is how I'm looking at the math. Please correct me if I'm wrong. For the sake of argument, let's assume best case scenario using the odds above. I'm also assuming these are all paid reviews.

                For the first review, a rating of 6 is received. With 7:1 odds to not get a 8 on a second review, then for the next eight reviews, only one would be an 8. The other seven reviews would be 7 or less. Again, let's assume best case for the next eight reviews, recieving the 8 first, one would get 8, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7 and 7.

                The average would be (6 + 8 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7) / 9 = 7.

                Let's look at a slightly worse case, receiving the 8 last.

                The average would be (6 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 8) / 9 = 7. The average is the same, but it took eight more paid reviews to get an 8.

                And an even worse case, receiving one 6 as well.

                The average would be (6 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 6 + 8) / 9 = 6.89. The average is lower and will take many more ratings of 8 or more to get the average higher than 7. Not likely at 1:7 odds.

                By the math above, if you get a 6 on your first review, you have a 1:7 (or 12.5%) chance of getting an 8 on your second review. In other words, there's a 87.5% chance of getting a 7 or less and reducing your average further. Steep odds to increase your chances if you get a 6 first. If you get a 5 on the first review, the odds are stacked even steeper against you.

                From what I understand about the spotlight algorithm, if a script gets an 8, it is flagged, even if it's average is less, but you require at least two ratings. If you get a 6 for the first paid rating, to me it doesn't make sense to get a second. The second rating would have to be 10 to give me an average of 8. How likely is that? It's not a smart bet based on the odds.

                The wild card is the spotlight algorithm, since there are scripts highlighted that have an average rating of less than 8. I can't address that.

                Am I wrong? I've rambled on long enough.
                Last edited by LFGabel; 12-01-2012, 09:53 PM.
                All the best,
                Lee
                __________________________________
                I'm not just a screenwriter...
                I also write and illustrate picture books!

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Contests or Black List?

                  Originally posted by FranklinLeonard View Post
                  My statements have been about finding screenplays Hollywood wants to read. There's a big difference.
                  Hey Franklin,

                  I'm hosting a script now on The Black List and look forward to hosting two more that I've written. I'm really excited about this service, think it could be groundbreaking. I know the following may have been asked previously (have not been able to go through the entire thread), but just a few quick questions:

                  1) In the time that the service has been active, about how long on average has it taken for writers to get their evaluations back? 2 weeks? A month?

                  2) How many scripts currently uploaded on the site are scripts newly added since the service launched, vs. previous Black List entrants you entered in the database? Right now the total stands at over 5,000, but I'm guessing the majority of those are scripts that don't need to be reviewed.

                  3) How many readers do you currently employ? The volume of evaluation requests seems to be growing rapidly, so just curious if you are hiring more as time goes by to meet the capacity needs.

                  4) Do you think (or do you know, based on their search patterns) that the industry professionals are more likely to download scripts from writers who have some form of representation (managers or agents)? Would think that would defeat the purpose of discovering amateur writers.

                  5) Has there been any widespread concern among customers that because of how easily accessible the scripts are when they are uploaded, ideas may be stolen (even from industry professionals)? Know this is unlikely, but you know how paranoid us screenwriters are

                  Ok, so that wasn't so quick, but I just figured I'd list them at one time instead of coming back repeatedly with more questions. Thanks!
                  "I love being a writer. What I can't stand is the paperwork.-- Peter De Vries

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Contests or Black List?

                    Originally posted by LFGabel View Post
                    This is how I'm looking at the math. Please correct me if I'm wrong. For the sake of argument, let's assume best case scenario using the odds above. I'm also assuming these are all paid reviews.

                    For the first review, a rating of 6 is received. With 7:1 odds to not get a 8 on a second review, then for the next eight reviews, only one would be an 8. The other seven reviews would be 7 or less. Again, let's assume best case for the next eight reviews, recieving the 8 first, one would get 8, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7 and 7.

                    The average would be (6 + 8 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7) / 9 = 7.

                    Let's look at a slightly worse case, receiving the 8 last.

                    The average would be (6 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 8) / 9 = 7. The average is the same, but it took eight more paid reviews to get an 8.

                    And an even worse case, receiving one 6 as well.

                    The average would be (6 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 6 + 8) / 9 = 6.89. The average is lower and will take many more ratings of 8 or more to get the average higher than 7. Not likely at 1:7 odds.

                    By the math above, if you get a 6 on your first review, you have a 1:7 (or 12.5%) chance of getting an 8 on your second review. In other words, there's a 87.5% chance of getting a 7 or less and reducing your average further. Steep odds to increase your chances if you get a 6 first. If you get a 5 on the first review, the odds are stacked even steeper against you.

                    From what I understand about the spotlight algorithm, if a script gets an 8, it is flagged, even if it's average is less, but you require at least two ratings. If you get a 6 for the first paid rating, to me it doesn't make sense to get a second. The second rating would have to be 10 to give me an average of 8. How likely is that? It's not a smart bet based on the odds.

                    The wild card is the spotlight algorithm, since there are scripts highlighted that have an average rating of less than 8. I can't address that.

                    Am I wrong? I've rambled on long enough.
                    Any script with a single 8 will get spotlighted in our weekly email regardless of its previous scores or average. So if get a 6 on your first, you've got approximately a 12.5% chance of getting an 8 on your next review, which would include you in the weekly email. That's really all I can speak to.

                    Statistically, I believe a script with two ratings - a 6 and a 7 - has slightly higher odds of getting an 8 on its next read than one that has only a single 6, so I'm not sure that your examples apply. Fundamentally it's just more complex than that.

                    Also, you're excluding the possibility of the script receiving an 8 on its component scores, which also mean that it will be included in our more targeted emails based on users preferences.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: Contests or Black List?

                      Originally posted by UpandComing View Post
                      Hey Franklin,

                      I'm hosting a script now on The Black List and look forward to hosting two more that I've written. I'm really excited about this service, think it could be groundbreaking. I know the following may have been asked previously (have not been able to go through the entire thread), but just a few quick questions:

                      1) In the time that the service has been active, about how long on average has it taken for writers to get their evaluations back? 2 weeks? A month?

                      2) How many scripts currently uploaded on the site are scripts newly added since the service launched, vs. previous Black List entrants you entered in the database? Right now the total stands at over 5,000, but I'm guessing the majority of those are scripts that don't need to be reviewed.

                      3) How many readers do you currently employ? The volume of evaluation requests seems to be growing rapidly, so just curious if you are hiring more as time goes by to meet the capacity needs.

                      4) Do you think (or do you know, based on their search patterns) that the industry professionals are more likely to download scripts from writers who have some form of representation (managers or agents)? Would think that would defeat the purpose of discovering amateur writers.

                      5) Has there been any widespread concern among customers that because of how easily accessible the scripts are when they are uploaded, ideas may be stolen (even from industry professionals)? Know this is unlikely, but you know how paranoid us screenwriters are

                      Ok, so that wasn't so quick, but I just figured I'd list them at one time instead of coming back repeatedly with more questions. Thanks!
                      1) It varies based on demand and genre, but we've just overhauled the process in order to speed up and standardize the time on reads. We still anticipate between 2-3 weeks (though many people get theirs faster). If you reach the three week mark, you're well within your rights to email us at [email protected] and we'll expedite your read.

                      2) We've had about 1400 screenplays uploaded since the launch of the site. Many have requested multiple reads, however.

                      3) We currently employ 38 readers. We'll be bringing more on in the new year along with a team of TV pilot readers to accommodate our expansion into television.

                      4) We haven't looked at script downloading based on representation thus far. The vast majority of downloaded scripts are by writers unrepresented at the time of their upload. If you're repped by a manager, managers are less likely to download your script. If you're repped by an agent, agents are less likely to download your script, so I suspect that you're slightly better off if you're not represented in terms of sheer numbers.

                      5) There hasn't been a great deal of concern about that, no.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: Contests or Black List?

                        Originally posted by FranklinLeonard View Post
                        1) It varies based on demand and genre, but we've just overhauled the process in order to speed up and standardize the time on reads. We still anticipate between 2-3 weeks (though many people get theirs faster). If you reach the three week mark, you're well within your rights to email us at [email protected] and we'll expedite your read.

                        2) We've had about 1400 screenplays uploaded since the launch of the site. Many have requested multiple reads, however.

                        3) We currently employ 38 readers. We'll be bringing more on in the new year along with a team of TV pilot readers to accommodate our expansion into television.

                        4) We haven't looked at script downloading based on representation thus far. The vast majority of downloaded scripts are by writers unrepresented at the time of their upload. If you're repped by a manager, managers are less likely to download your script. If you're repped by an agent, agents are less likely to download your script, so I suspect that you're slightly better off if you're not represented in terms of sheer numbers.

                        5) There hasn't been a great deal of concern about that, no.

                        Great - many thanks for the rapid and detailed response! Enjoy the rest of your weekend. And all the best with the service; I look forward to using it in the months to come...
                        "I love being a writer. What I can't stand is the paperwork.-- Peter De Vries

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: Contests or Black List?

                          Originally posted by FranklinLeonard View Post
                          Any script with a single 8 will get spotlighted in our weekly email regardless of its previous scores or average. So if get a 6 on your first, you've got approximately a 12.5% chance of getting an 8 on your next review, which would include you in the weekly email. That's really all I can speak to.

                          Statistically, I believe a script with two ratings - a 6 and a 7 - has slightly higher odds of getting an 8 on its next read than one that has only a single 6, so I'm not sure that your examples apply. Fundamentally it's just more complex than that.

                          Also, you're excluding the possibility of the script receiving an 8 on its component scores, which also mean that it will be included in our more targeted emails based on users preferences.
                          Thanks for the explanation, Franklin. Of course I simplified things. An outsider can't hope to know the inner workings.

                          I wasn't aware users could target scripts based on components as well, like seeing all scripts with highly rated dialogue.

                          Complex indeed.
                          All the best,
                          Lee
                          __________________________________
                          I'm not just a screenwriter...
                          I also write and illustrate picture books!

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Contests or Black List?

                            Originally posted by LFGabel View Post
                            Thanks for the explanation, Franklin. Of course I simplified things. An outsider can't hope to know the inner workings.

                            I wasn't aware users could target scripts based on components as well, like seeing all scripts with highly rated dialogue.

                            Complex indeed.
                            Indeed they can. Let's say you're looking for comedy writers who are particularly strong with dialogue. You can specify comedy and dialogue as two things you're interested in, and once a week you'll get an email listing all comedies that received at least an 8 for dialogue.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: Contests or Black List?

                              Originally posted by FranklinLeonard View Post
                              1) It varies based on demand and genre, but we've just overhauled the process in order to speed up and standardize the time on reads. We still anticipate between 2-3 weeks (though many people get theirs faster). If you reach the three week mark, you're well within your rights to email us at [email protected] and we'll expedite your read.

                              2) We've had about 1400 screenplays uploaded since the launch of the site. Many have requested multiple reads, however.

                              3) We currently employ 38 readers. We'll be bringing more on in the new year along with a team of TV pilot readers to accommodate our expansion into television.

                              4) We haven't looked at script downloading based on representation thus far. The vast majority of downloaded scripts are by writers unrepresented at the time of their upload. If you're repped by a manager, managers are less likely to download your script. If you're repped by an agent, agents are less likely to download your script, so I suspect that you're slightly better off if you're not represented in terms of sheer numbers.

                              5) There hasn't been a great deal of concern about that, no.
                              Maybe I missed it or maybe it's too soon:

                              Will you be posting stats on:

                              1) The average how long a script is being put up for(ie months)
                              2) The average number of readers a submitter is paying for?

                              It would give one a more accurate view of the costs that may be incurred.

                              Thanks for answering our questions.

                              Comment

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